TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different price sources (Binance XRP/USDT spot vs. CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index) and different measurement methodologies (1-hour candle open/close comparison vs. 60-second average at a point in time). Both measure directional movement at 5 PM ET on April 26, 2026, but can produce conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
Polymarket resolves on Binance exchange data (spot price candle comparison). Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks institutional index (60-second average). These sources can diverge by 1-2% in normal market conditions. If you are hedging or arbitraging, confirm which source you are exposed to. Kalshi's 39 price bands mean it can resolve to Yes across nearly all price levels; Polymarket is strictly binary (up or down). Treat as separate markets with independent resolution risk.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional bet on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open, Down otherwise. Uses exchange spot price data finalized after the 1-hour candle closes. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Price-level bet on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index. Resolves Yes if 60-second average before 5 PM EDT falls into one of 39 discrete bands (1.02000-1.7799+). Resolves No if price is outside all bands. Uses institutional benchmark index, not exchange spot. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [X-Y]...'
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