TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$12,810
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks XRP/USD price movement during a specific 4-hour window on April 21, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket resolves based on whether the closing price is greater than or equal to the opening price within this window using Chainlink's XRP/USD data stream. Kalshi operates a parallel but distinct framework with 40 granular price-level thresholds, all measured at exactly 5:00 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI (60-second average), creating a fundamental structural mismatch.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Kalshi references 40 separate price thresholds against CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index at a single 5 PM EDT snapshot, while Polymarket measures directional price change (up or down) using Chainlink XRP/USD data across a 4-hour window. These markets cannot resolve identically.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent. On Kalshi, you are betting on whether XRP/USD exceeds one of 40 specific price levels at exactly 5 PM EDT on April 21, 2026, measured against CF Benchmarks data. On Polymarket, you are betting on whether XRP/USD at 8 PM ET is greater than or equal to its price at 4 PM ET, using Chainlink data. A price rise on Chainlink does not guarantee a YES on any Kalshi threshold, and vice versa. Arbitrage is not possible; these are separate events.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 40 binary markets, each resolving YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 0.9999 to 1.7799). Each market is independent; all 40 could theoretically resolve YES if the index is above 1.7799. Resolution is based on a single snapshot at 5 PM EDT on April 21, 2026. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Single binary market resolving to 'Up' if XRP/USD price at 8 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4 PM ET on April 21, 2026, using Chainlink XRP/USD data stream. Exactly one outcome (Up or Down) will resolve YES. Resolution is based on a 4-hour price comparison, not a snapshot. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to Down. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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