TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$12,810

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

 - Polymarket

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 22, 2026

Closed: Apr 21, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,698
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,932
N/A
N/A
$1,537
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$745
N/A
N/A
$720
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$217
N/A
N/A
$180
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$652
N/A
N/A
$638
Settled
No
kalshi

Ripple price at Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$193
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks XRP/USD price movement during a specific 4-hour window on April 21, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket resolves based on whether the closing price is greater than or equal to the opening price within this window using Chainlink's XRP/USD data stream. Kalshi operates a parallel but distinct framework with 40 granular price-level thresholds, all measured at exactly 5:00 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI (60-second average), creating a fundamental structural mismatch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Kalshi references 40 separate price thresholds against CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index at a single 5 PM EDT snapshot, while Polymarket measures directional price change (up or down) using Chainlink XRP/USD data across a 4-hour window. These markets cannot resolve identically.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are equivalent. On Kalshi, you are betting on whether XRP/USD exceeds one of 40 specific price levels at exactly 5 PM EDT on April 21, 2026, measured against CF Benchmarks data. On Polymarket, you are betting on whether XRP/USD at 8 PM ET is greater than or equal to its price at 4 PM ET, using Chainlink data. A price rise on Chainlink does not guarantee a YES on any Kalshi threshold, and vice versa. Arbitrage is not possible; these are separate events.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 binary markets, each resolving YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 0.9999 to 1.7799). Each market is independent; all 40 could theoretically resolve YES if the index is above 1.7799. Resolution is based on a single snapshot at 5 PM EDT on April 21, 2026. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary market resolving to 'Up' if XRP/USD price at 8 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4 PM ET on April 21, 2026, using Chainlink XRP/USD data stream. Exactly one outcome (Up or Down) will resolve YES. Resolution is based on a 4-hour price comparison, not a snapshot. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to Down. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.