TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines the price range of XRP at a specific future moment by analyzing real-time market data. The outcome depends on whether the price falls within one of several defined intervals at the exact closing time, using a standardized pricing source for accuracy.
The event resolves based on the simple average price of XRP measured by CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) during the sixty seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific price range, with one market designated for prices at or below $0.81999 and another for prices above $1.7799. If the price falls within any of the defined intervals at the exact resolution time, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Should data be unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, all affected markets resolve to 'No'. The Exchange ensures clarity regarding any multiple versions of the cryptocurrency by specifying the exact ticker or version being tracked. Continuous pricing data from CF Benchmarks guarantees real-time accuracy for major cryptocurrencies.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional spot price forecasts. While analysts and polls may offer predictions based on fundamental or technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders willing to put their capital at risk. This creates a unique signal, as traders are incentivized to accurately assess the probability of different outcomes. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and external forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding the future price of XRP.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different XRP price ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of XRP falling within that range at the specified future date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular range, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of XRP’s potential price movement.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome determined by verifying the price of XRP at 5pm EDT on September 25, 2026, against credible public reporting. The contract corresponding to the price range that includes the actual XRP price at that time will pay out $1.00 per contract. All other contracts will settle to $0.00. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome for this market.
Numerous factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 25, 2026. Major regulatory decisions regarding cryptocurrency, particularly those impacting XRP, would likely cause substantial price swings. Significant technological advancements or partnerships related to the XRP Ledger could also move the market. Broader macroeconomic trends, such as changes in interest rates or inflation, and overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies will also play a role. Unexpected news events or security breaches affecting the XRP ecosystem could introduce volatility and shift trader expectations.