TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 29, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines which price range XRP will fall into on June 29, 2026 at 5pm EDT using CF Benchmarks' official Real Time Index. The market divides the price spectrum into specific bands, with each outcome representing a distinct price range.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on June 29, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching where the averaged price falls. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader conviction and often diverge from simple spot-price forecasts because they embed tail risk, volatility expectations, and longer-term macro views. While a spot exchange shows the current XRP price, this market prices in uncertainty over a multi-month horizon. Traders betting on specific price ranges are effectively hedging or speculating on catalysts—regulatory news, adoption milestones, or broader crypto sentiment shifts—that may not be fully priced into today's spot market. The odds here tend to be more forward-looking and risk-adjusted than a static price quote.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book matching, where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each XRP price bracket. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each bracket functions as a separate binary contract—you either win the full payout if that range hits at settlement, or zero if it does not. The price of each bracket reflects the collective probability assigned by the market; higher prices indicate stronger consensus that XRP will land in that range. Liquidity and order depth vary by bracket, so wider spreads may appear on less-traded price tiers.
This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, at which point the winning price bracket is determined by XRP's verified spot price at that exact moment. The outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting and exchange data. Only one bracket will be correct, and all shares in that bracket pay out in full while all other brackets expire worthless. Traders should monitor the approach to the settlement date to manage their positions before the market locks.
Major regulatory announcements—particularly from the SEC or international authorities—can shift XRP odds sharply, as legal clarity directly impacts adoption and institutional demand. Macroeconomic events, including Fed policy shifts or broader crypto market rallies or crashes, typically move all crypto assets in tandem. Ripple company milestones, partnerships, or technical upgrades may attract or deter traders. Bitcoin and Ethereum price swings often correlate with XRP, so monitoring the broader market is essential. Unexpected security incidents, delisting threats, or shifts in stablecoin regulation can also trigger rapid repricing across price brackets.