TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 27, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines which price range XRP will trade within on June 27, 2026 at 5pm EDT using the CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index. Participants can bet on specific price bands, with ranges spanning from below $0.62 up to above $1.38.
Resolution is determined by calculating the simple average of the CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI over the 60-second period immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 27, 2026. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the calculated average falls within its specified price range at exactly the target time and date. The price ranges partition the full spectrum from below $0.62 to above $1.3799, with each range spanning approximately $0.02. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, all affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data sourced from major cryptocurrency exchanges. For any cryptocurrency with multiple versions or tickers, the Exchange will specify which version is being tracked for this event.
Prediction market odds reflect real money at stake, so they often diverge from casual sentiment or analyst forecasts. On this market, the odds weighted across all price ranges represent traders' aggregate belief about where XRP will actually settle. Unlike polls or price targets from analysts, prediction market probabilities are self-correcting—traders who misjudge the odds face direct financial loss. This mechanism tends to surface genuine conviction and forward-looking information. Comparing the leading price range's implied probability to public analyst expectations can reveal whether the market is pricing in more bullish, bearish, or neutral scenarios than the broader consensus.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares tied to each XRP price range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each range functions as a separate contract; the price of a share reflects the market's probability that XRP will close within that band. As new trades flow in, odds update dynamically. Traders profit by correctly predicting which range will contain the settlement price, and losses accrue to those on the wrong side. The spread between bid and ask prices tightens as volume increases, making it cheaper to enter or exit positions in heavily traded ranges.
This market resolves around Jun 27, 2026, once XRP's spot price at that moment is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by identifying which predefined price range contains the settlement price at the specified time. No ambiguity exists if the price falls cleanly within a range; edge cases are rare given the width of typical bands. Once the event passes and the price is confirmed, the market locks and winning positions are paid out automatically. Traders should verify the exact settlement time zone and data source in the market rules before trading.
Major catalysts for XRP price movement include regulatory announcements affecting Ripple or crypto broadly, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin and Ethereum price swings, and developments in Ripple's legal disputes or partnerships. On-chain metrics such as large wallet transfers or exchange inflows can signal accumulation or selling pressure. Broader crypto sentiment, central bank policy, and traditional finance adoption news also influence trader positioning. Technical levels and historical support/resistance may anchor expectations. As the resolution date approaches, intraday volatility and final positioning adjustments often intensify, so watch for late-stage order flow and news cycles that could shift odds in the final hours.