TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 22, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines which price range XRP will fall within on June 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT, using CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index data. The market divides the price spectrum into distinct bands to capture where the cryptocurrency settles.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on June 22, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range, and exactly one outcome will resolve to Yes based on where the averaged price falls. The price must meet the criterion at exactly the specified time on the target date. If no data is available or incomplete at the expiration time, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for major cryptocurrencies.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on specific outcomes, which often diverges from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While spot markets react to immediate news and sentiment, this market aggregates forward-looking bets on XRP's price at a defined future date. Traders here are pricing in longer-term catalysts, regulatory developments, and adoption trends rather than day-to-day volatility. The odds can serve as a useful cross-check against traditional price targets, though they represent market consensus rather than a guarantee of accuracy.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each XRP price range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each range has its own contract, and the price of a share reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring by the resolution date. As traders adjust their positions based on new information or changing views, the odds update in real time. The sum of all range probabilities equals 100 percent, ensuring the market remains internally consistent.
This market resolves around Jun 22, 2026, at which point the actual XRP price will be verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by where XRP trades during the specified window, and the winning range is confirmed once the price data is finalized. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. Resolution is typically swift once the event time passes and pricing information becomes available.
Major regulatory announcements, SEC decisions on XRP's classification, and shifts in institutional adoption could significantly influence this market's odds. Macroeconomic events affecting risk appetite and cryptocurrency sentiment more broadly will also play a role. Technical developments on the XRP Ledger, partnerships, or changes in stablecoin demand may reshape trader expectations. Additionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements often correlate with XRP, so broader crypto market momentum is worth monitoring through the resolution window.