TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 13, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides the XRP price range into specific bands on June 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Participants predict which price range XRP will fall within, with resolution based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index data collected at the expiration time.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI over 60 seconds prior to 5 PM EDT on June 13, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on where the averaged price falls. The price must meet the criterion at exactly the specified time on the target date. If no data is available or incomplete at the expiration time, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for major cryptocurrencies.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader conviction about where XRP will actually trade, often diverging from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. On this market, the implied probabilities across price bands reveal which ranges traders consider most likely, weighted by their capital allocation. These odds typically incorporate forward-looking sentiment, regulatory news, and macroeconomic factors that spot prices may lag in pricing. Comparing the leading outcome's probability to traditional analyst price targets can highlight whether the prediction market is pricing in more bullish or bearish scenarios than consensus.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each XRP price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The bid-ask spread reflects the market's liquidity and conviction around each band. Traders profit by correctly predicting which range will contain XRP's price at settlement, with payouts determined by the final verified spot price. Real-time order flow and position changes drive price discovery, allowing the platform to continuously update implied probabilities for each outcome.
This market resolves around Jun 13, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by XRP's verified spot price at that exact moment. The winning range is confirmed once the price is observable from credible public sources, and traders holding shares in the correct band receive their payout. All other positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automatic once the settlement time passes and the price data is finalized.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting XRP's legal status, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements, and developments in Ripple's business partnerships or litigation. Positive news on institutional adoption or stablecoin use cases could push traders toward higher price ranges, while regulatory headwinds or broader crypto selloffs might shift conviction toward lower bands. Technical levels, options expiry dates, and major economic data releases can also trigger rapid repricing. Traders should monitor XRP-specific news, SEC filings, and macro sentiment closely leading up to settlement.