TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines which price range XRP will occupy on July 6, 2026 at 5 PM EDT using the CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index. Participants select from consecutive price bands spanning from below $0.72 to above $1.48.
Resolution is determined by calculating the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) over the 60-second period immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 6, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range; the outcome resolves affirmatively if the calculated average falls within that range at exactly the specified time on the target date. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for XRP. If data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected outcomes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.
Prediction market odds reveal what traders collectively believe will occur, often diverging from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While crypto exchanges show today's XRP price, this market encodes forward-looking sentiment about where the token will settle months ahead. Traders who believe XRP will move beyond consensus levels can profit by taking contrarian positions. The gap between implied probabilities and external forecasts—from on-chain analysts, institutional research, or macroeconomic models—often signals where informed traders see mispricing or underappreciated catalysts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each XRP price range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a claim on a specific price band, and the market price of each contract reflects the probability traders assign to that outcome. As new information emerges—regulatory news, adoption milestones, or macroeconomic shifts—traders adjust their bids and offers, moving the implied odds in real time.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning price range will be determined by where XRP trades at the specified time, verified against established market data sources. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution is final once the settlement time passes and the price is locked in.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting Ripple or stablecoins, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements, and adoption news from financial institutions using XRP. Geopolitical events, central bank policy changes, and shifts in crypto market structure can also reshape trader expectations. Technical developments—such as Ripple's ledger upgrades or interoperability partnerships—may influence long-term positioning. Traders monitor on-chain metrics, exchange flows, and sentiment indicators to anticipate moves before they materialize in the price.