TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 2, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price range of XRP (Ripple) cryptocurrency on July 2, 2026 at 5 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index. The market resolves based on which price band the simple average of 60 seconds of pricing data falls into.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on July 2, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the averaged price at exactly the specified time. If data is incomplete or unavailable at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency trading venues.
Prediction market odds reveal what traders collectively expect XRP to be worth at a future date, whereas spot prices reflect current market value. This market aggregates forward-looking sentiment into probability ranges, often diverging from today's price due to anticipated volatility, adoption catalysts, or macroeconomic shifts. Comparing the odds here to analyst price targets or survey expectations can highlight whether the prediction market is pricing in more or less optimism than traditional forecasters. The gap between these signals often indicates where uncertainty or disagreement is highest.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers submit bids and asks for each XRP price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The odds for each band reflect the ratio of capital committed to that outcome relative to all other ranges. As new information emerges—regulatory news, technical developments, or broader crypto sentiment shifts—traders adjust their positions, moving the probabilities. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery and tight spreads during active trading hours.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once XRP's price at that specific moment is verifiable from credible public sources. The winning range is determined by where XRP trades in the spot market at the designated settlement time. All positions held in the correct range receive their payout, while positions in other ranges expire worthless. Resolution is final once the price data is locked in and verified.
Major regulatory announcements—particularly from the SEC or international financial authorities—historically shift XRP sentiment sharply. Ripple's business developments, partnerships with financial institutions, or updates to the XRP Ledger can also drive repricing. Broader crypto market movements, Bitcoin volatility, and macroeconomic policy changes ripple through altcoin valuations. Technical milestones, exchange listings or delistings, and shifts in institutional adoption narratives all influence trader positioning. Real-time monitoring of crypto news and on-chain metrics helps traders anticipate moves before they're fully priced in.