TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides the XRP price range into specific bands on July 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT, allowing traders to bet on which price range XRP will fall within at that time.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. The price is divided into consecutive ranges, each approximately $0.02 wide, spanning from below $0.62 to above $1.58. Exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on which range contains the averaged price at the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. This range-based structure provides comprehensive coverage of the expected price distribution while maintaining precision through narrow band widths.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on specific price outcomes, often diverging from current spot prices because they embed forward-looking sentiment and uncertainty. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, this market prices in longer-term catalysts—regulatory developments, adoption trends, and macroeconomic shifts—that may not yet be reflected in today's XRP trading. Comparing the implied probabilities here to analyst forecasts or on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in tail risks or consensus upside.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each XRP price range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out if the outcome occurs at settlement, and the current bid-ask spread reflects the market's confidence in that range. Prices move as new traders enter or exit positions, making the market self-correcting as fresh information arrives.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, when XRP's price at that specific time is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which price range XRP occupies at the settlement moment, and all shares corresponding to the correct range pay out in full. Traders holding positions in other ranges receive nothing, making precision timing and price prediction the core skill tested by this market.
Major regulatory announcements—particularly from the SEC or international financial authorities—historically shift XRP sentiment sharply. Institutional adoption milestones, stablecoin or central bank digital currency developments, and shifts in broader crypto market sentiment also drive repricing. Macroeconomic events affecting risk appetite, technical breakouts or breakdowns on the chart, and updates to XRP's use cases in cross-border payments can all trigger rapid position adjustments as traders reassess the probability of each price band.