TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP price on July 17?
kalshi
polymarket

XRP price on July 17?

Volume:
$53,720

$1.09991 or above

 - Kalshi

$1.09991 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 17, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,389
N/A
N/A
$3,422
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,921
N/A
N/A
$1,083
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,276
N/A
N/A
$1,961
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$370
N/A
N/A
$370
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1.00-1.10

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$351
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$331
N/A
N/A
$295
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.97991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$68
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.51991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.53991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.13991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,382
N/A
N/A
$4,164
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,214
N/A
N/A
$2,425
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.19991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,138
N/A
N/A
$3,077
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.17991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,038
N/A
N/A
$2,839
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.21991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,639
N/A
N/A
$2,446
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,599
N/A
N/A
$2,581
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.23991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,502
N/A
N/A
$1,319
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.39991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,389
N/A
N/A
$2,389
Settled
No
polymarket

0.90-1.00

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,387
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.20-1.30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.47991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$636
N/A
N/A
$636
Settled
No
polymarket

1.10-1.20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$542
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>1.60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.50-1.60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<0.70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

These markets track the price of XRP (Ripple's cryptocurrency) on July 17, 2026. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index measured at 5 PM EDT on July 10, 2026, while Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT closing price at noon ET on July 17, 2026. The event group contains a critical temporal and source mismatch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi measures XRP price 7 calendar days before the stated event date (July 10 vs July 17) using a different data source (CF Benchmarks index vs Binance spot), making these markets measure fundamentally different settlement values despite sharing an event title.Hero tip: Do not treat these as equivalent markets. Kalshi's resolution on July 10 at 5 PM EDT is temporally disconnected from Polymarket's July 17 noon ET resolution. Price movements between July 10 and July 17 create basis risk. Confirm which date and source matches your trading intent before entering positions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on July 10, 2026 at 5 PM EDT (7 days before event title date). Uses CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) 60-second simple average. Offers 50 binary YES/NO brackets at 0.02 price increments from 0.4999 to 1.4799. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves on July 17, 2026 at 12:00 noon ET (actual event date). Uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-minute candle close price. Offers 12 categorical brackets: <0.70, 0.70-0.80, 0.80-0.90, 0.90-1.00, 1.00-1.10, 1.10-1.20, 1.20-1.30, 1.30-1.40, 1.40-1.50, 1.50-1.60, >1.60. Tie-breaker: 'If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.' Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the final Close price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 10, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average price exceeds that threshold. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

The XRP price prediction market aggregates trader forecasts across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on where Ripple will trade by July 17, 2026. Participants on each venue stake capital on specific price ranges or levels, and the collective odds reflect the crowd's conviction. This market consolidates volume and pricing signals from both platforms, giving you a unified view of how the prediction community expects XRP to move over the coming months. The dashboard surfaces the leading outcome on each venue alongside 24-hour volume trends.

Prediction market odds represent real money at stake, making them a forward-looking gauge of where traders expect XRP to settle. Unlike spot prices, which reflect only the current exchange rate, these odds embed expectations about volatility, regulatory news, and macroeconomic shifts over the full forecast window. Traders who believe the consensus is wrong can profit by taking the opposite side, creating natural price discovery. This market's odds often diverge from spot price by incorporating tail risks and longer-term sentiment that spot markets may underweight in the short term.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, which can create temporary pricing gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform also attracts traders with distinct risk appetites and time horizons. Kalshi's institutional focus and Polymarket's retail-heavy liquidity mean order flow and leverage availability differ, pushing odds apart. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but friction costs and settlement timing can keep small divergences in place. Monitoring both venues gives you a fuller picture of where the market truly stands.

Regulatory announcements—especially from the SEC or international bodies—are the largest catalysts for XRP price swings and thus for this market. Ripple's litigation outcomes, partnerships with major financial institutions, and macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite all influence trader positioning. Bitcoin and broader crypto sentiment often set the tone for altcoin markets, so Bitcoin volatility can ripple through XRP odds. Technical breakouts, exchange listings, and changes to Ripple's tokenomics or use cases also drive repricing. Monitoring crypto news and on-chain metrics will help you anticipate moves before they're fully priced in.