TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP price on July 14?
kalshi
polymarket

XRP price on July 14?

Volume:
$22,229

$1.09991 or above

 - Kalshi

$1.09991 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 14, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,600
N/A
N/A
$1,368
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1.10-1.20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,549
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
$154
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$121
N/A
N/A
$61
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.93991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.95991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.97991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.13991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,880
N/A
N/A
$3,047
Settled
No
polymarket

1.00-1.10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,384
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.90-1.00

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,679
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,673
N/A
N/A
$1,286
Settled
No
polymarket

1.20-1.30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,576
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$575
N/A
N/A
$543
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.17991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$291
N/A
N/A
$213
Settled
No
polymarket

>1.60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.70-0.80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.50-1.60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<0.70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.80-0.90

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.30-1.40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.40-1.50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.19991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.69991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

These markets collectively assess XRP/USD price levels on July 14, 2026. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index measured at 5 PM EDT on July 7, 2026 (one week prior), while Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price at noon ET on July 14 itself. The event group spans price brackets from sub-$0.70 to above $1.60.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Temporal misalignment (Kalshi resolves July 7 vs Polymarket resolves July 14) combined with source fragmentation (CF Benchmarks index vs Binance spot price). Both measure XRP/USD but at different times, using different methodologies, creating two independent settlement values.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate markets with different risk profiles. Kalshi's outcome is determined one week early and locks in a benchmark-based price. Polymarket captures actual spot price at noon on the event date. Price volatility between July 7 and July 14 means these can resolve to different outcome brackets. Use Kalshi for early-week positioning; use Polymarket for event-day exposure.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average measured before 5 PM EDT on July 7, 2026 (7 days before event date). Creates 40 binary outcomes with $0.02 price increments from $0.6999 to $1.4799. Each outcome is mutually exclusive; only one resolves Yes. Key Quote: 'simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT on Jul 7, 2026'
  • Polymarket: Resolves on Binance XRP/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 noon ET on July 14, 2026 (the actual event date). Creates 11 categorical price brackets with $0.10 increments from <$0.70 to >$1.60. Includes tie-breaking rule: if price falls exactly between brackets, resolves to higher range. Key Quote: 'final Close price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 7, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average price exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

The XRP price prediction market aggregates trader forecasts across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on where Ripple's token will trade by mid-July 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome reflects one price window, while Kalshi tracks a specific range. Together, these platforms show how the crowd expects XRP to move relative to current spot levels. Cross-platform volume and odds reveal whether traders lean bullish, bearish, or neutral on the asset's near-term direction.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases and use distinct contract designs to frame the same underlying question. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulatory structure and user demographics may attract more conservative traders, while Polymarket's global reach and range-based outcomes appeal to those hedging specific price bands. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and settlement timelines also vary, causing odds to drift. Savvy traders exploit these spreads by arbitraging between platforms, though friction costs and withdrawal delays often prevent perfect convergence.

XRP price action hinges on regulatory announcements, Ripple's business developments, and broader crypto market sentiment. SEC decisions, partnership news, or shifts in institutional adoption could trigger sharp repricing. Macro events—interest rate changes, risk-off sentiment, or Bitcoin volatility—often drag altcoins along. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows and whale transactions may hint at accumulation or distribution. Traders monitoring this market should watch news feeds, social sentiment, and competing layer-one tokens for early signals of directional bias.