TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 27, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the XRP/USD exchange rate on June 27, 2026 at 5pm EDT using the CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index. Participants can bet on whether XRP will trade at or above various price thresholds ranging from $0.5999 to $1.3799.
Resolution is determined by calculating the simple average of the CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI over the 60-second period immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 27, 2026. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the calculated average meets or exceeds its specified price threshold at exactly the target time and date. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, all affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data sourced from major cryptocurrency exchanges. For any cryptocurrency with multiple versions or tickers, the Exchange will specify which version is being tracked for this event.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, whereas spot prices represent current market value. This market aggregates forward-looking conviction from many participants, often revealing expectations that differ from today's price. Traders who believe XRP will move significantly higher or lower than current levels can profit by taking positions at favorable odds. The gap between current spot price and the weighted average outcome in this market can signal whether traders expect bullish or bearish momentum through the resolution date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different XRP price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome bracket has its own price, reflecting the probability traders assign to XRP settling in that range. Shares in higher price brackets cost more when bullish sentiment dominates, and vice versa. The continuous two-sided market ensures transparent price discovery and allows participants to enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes.
This market resolves around Jun 27, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once XRP's price is verifiable from credible public sources. The exact settlement price is locked in at the specified time, and all positions are paid out according to which bracket the final price falls into. Participants should monitor XRP price action closely as the resolution date approaches, since any movement in the final hours can shift outcomes between adjacent brackets. Once verified, payouts are distributed automatically to winning positions.
Major regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts, and developments within the XRP ecosystem can all drive significant price moves before settlement. Positive news such as institutional adoption, exchange listings, or favorable regulatory clarity typically push odds toward higher price brackets. Conversely, security incidents, regulatory crackdowns, or broader crypto market downturns can shift sentiment toward lower outcomes. Traders should watch for Federal Reserve policy changes, Bitcoin price movements, and any Ripple company announcements, as these often correlate with XRP volatility and can reshape market expectations substantially.