TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP above ___ on June 12?
polymarket
kalshi

XRP above ___ on June 12?

Volume:
$338,882

1.00

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1.00

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$140,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,019
N/A
N/A
$1,013
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1.10

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$43,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,024
N/A
N/A
$830
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.80

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$26,285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.81991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.70

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,663
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.69991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,435
N/A
N/A
$743
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,467
N/A
N/A
$988
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.90

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,317
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.93991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.97991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,304
N/A
N/A
$515
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$918
N/A
N/A
$818
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$503
N/A
N/A
$490
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.60

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.59991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$471
N/A
N/A
$454
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.95991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.65991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1.20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,775
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.21991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$408
N/A
N/A
$240
Settled
No
polymarket

1.30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.37991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,716
N/A
N/A
$1,263
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP will trade above various price thresholds on June 12, 2026. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET (noon), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average at 5:00 PM EDT. Both platforms offer multiple price levels, but they differ fundamentally in timing, data source, and measurement methodology.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Timing divergence (12:00 PM ET vs 5:00 PM EDT, 5-hour gap) combined with data source fragmentation (Binance spot exchange vs CF Benchmarks index). Both measure the same underlying asset but at different times and via different methodologies, creating basis risk.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with independent resolution paths. The 5-hour gap means XRP price can move substantially between noon and 5 PM. Polymarket's noon close is earlier and uses raw exchange data; Kalshi's 5 PM average is later and uses a benchmark calculation. Do not assume one resolves Yes implies the other does. If trading both, monitor XRP/USDT on Binance at both timestamps independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on June 12. Direct exchange data, explicit candle selection, 2-decimal price precision. Source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with 1m candles selected.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second simple average at 5:00 PM EDT on June 12, 2026 (5 hours after Polymarket). Third-party benchmark index, 4-decimal price precision. No direct exchange link provided; index calculation methodology not detailed in source data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by calculating the simple average of the CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) for the 60 seconds prior to 5:00 PM EDT on June 12, 2026. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the average price meets or exceeds its specified threshold at exactly the specified time. If no data is available or the data is incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for XRP across major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Key catalysts include regulatory clarity from the SEC or international bodies on XRP's classification, Ripple's adoption announcements with major financial institutions, macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite for altcoins, Bitcoin dominance trends, and technical breakouts or breakdowns at major resistance and support levels. Geopolitical events, central bank policy changes, and competing blockchain developments can also influence XRP's trajectory. Monitor on-chain metrics, institutional inflows, and Ripple's quarterly announcements for signals that could shift market conviction before June 12.