TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP above ___ on August 23?
polymarket
kalshi

XRP above ___ on August 23?

Volume:
$12,022

1.30

 - Polymarket

1.30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 23, 12:14 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1.30

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,184
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1.20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$880
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.36 to 1.3799

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$672
N/A
N/A
$651
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.90

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$515
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1.40

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1.00

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1.10

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.60

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.70

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.80

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.5199999 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.38 to 1.3999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,712
N/A
N/A
$777
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.34 to 1.3599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,287
N/A
N/A
$1,169
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.42 to 1.4399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,124
N/A
N/A
$776
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.18 to 1.1999

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$725
N/A
N/A
$725
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.4 to 1.4199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$703
N/A
N/A
$609
Settled
No
kalshi

$1 to 1.0199

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$617
N/A
N/A
$355
Settled
No
polymarket

1.50

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$534
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.47991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.52 to 0.5399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$533
N/A
N/A
$533
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.26 to 1.2799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$363
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.32 to 1.3399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$155
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.98 to 0.9999

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.96 to 0.9799

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$48
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the price of XRP will exceed various thresholds on August 23, 2026. The markets differ in their settlement mechanisms and data sources, with Kalshi using an average of Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index values and Polymarket relying on Binance's XRP/USDT closing price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use different settlement mechanisms (Kalshi uses a 2-day prior average of a specific index, Polymarket uses real-time Binance closing price) and different timeframes (August 21 vs August 23), creating potential for conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Trade with extreme caution due to the 2-day lag and different data sources between Kalshi and Polymarket. Consider hedging positions if you anticipate divergent outcomes. Focus on Polymarket for real-time price action, and Kalshi for indexed average behavior.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-minute candle close price at noon ET on August 23. Uses real-time exchange data with immediate settlement.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT on August 21, 2026 — a 2-day lag with indexed data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the simple average price of XRP over the sixty seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on August 21, 2026, using the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI). Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the market resolving to 'Yes' is the one whose defined range encompasses this average price at the exact specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete for the required period, all affected markets resolve to 'No'. The Exchange ensures clarity regarding any multiple versions of the cryptocurrency by specifying the relevant ticker. Continuous real-time pricing data from CF Benchmarks underpins all calculations, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the XRP price surge market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of a Ripple rally. It displays current odds, volume of $12,022, and 24-hour volume of $9,219, letting you see consensus and divergence in real time.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Market structure and participant dynamics drive pricing differences between Polymarket and Kalshi. Each platform attracts distinct trader groups, with varying access to information and risk tolerance. Additionally, liquidity levels and fee structures can influence how odds adjust throughout the trading period. These factors combined often result in varied implied probabilities for the same underlying event.