This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the October 5, 2026 trading day is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the October 5, 2026 trading day is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session for the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption, the official close price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe will be used to determine the closing price for that day (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the WTI crude oil market tracks the current odds that the price will be up or down on October 5. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $4,842. Total volume for this market is $6,495. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets, offering insight into market sentiment surrounding the future direction of oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the WTI crude oil market. While many analysts are predicting continued price volatility due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production decisions, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders actively putting capital at risk. It's important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, whereas this market represents a real-time assessment of probabilities as perceived by a diverse group of participants. Discrepancies can highlight areas of disagreement or differing information access.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the WTI crude oil price will be higher or lower on October 5. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the probability of the outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy 'yes' shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of the price being up. Conversely, increased selling pressure on 'yes' shares lowers the price, suggesting a lower probability.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing price of WTI crude oil futures contracts on October 5. The price will be sourced from a widely recognized exchange to ensure transparency and accuracy. The market will determine whether the price closed higher or lower than its opening value, establishing the winning outcome for this market.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 5, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels would likely cause substantial price swings. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in major oil-producing regions, could also drive volatility. Furthermore, major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing data or US employment figures), could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any significant disruptions to oil supply, such as pipeline outages or natural disasters, would be closely watched and could rapidly shift the odds.

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 5?

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