This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the October 26, 2026 trading day is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the October 26, 2026 trading day is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session for the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption, the official close price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe will be used to determine the closing price for that day (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the WTI crude oil market tracks the current odds that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will be higher or lower on October 26. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $3,690, and the 24-hour volume, which is $3,389. The dashboard also displays the price history of the market, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. This provides a quick overview of how participants are assessing the potential price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the WTI crude oil market. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals willing to put their capital at risk. This difference in outlook highlights the value of considering diverse sources of information when evaluating potential market movements.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether WTI crude oil will close higher or lower on October 26. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of the 'Up' outcome, with the 'Down' outcome being the inverse. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the price will go up, the higher the share price climbs, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing price of WTI crude oil futures contracts on the specified date. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized and trusted financial data provider. The market will then determine whether the price was higher or lower, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement.

Several key signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical developments in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, could disrupt supply and cause prices to spike. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand, like manufacturing indices or GDP figures, could also influence sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or any unforeseen disruptions to oil infrastructure, could create volatility. Any significant shifts in these factors will likely be reflected in the trading activity and price movements of this market.

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 26?

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