TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 27?
Volume:
$1,331,750
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks WTI Crude Oil price movement on March 27, 2026. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price levels within specific dollar ranges, while Polymarket resolves based on directional change (Up/Down) relative to the prior trading day's close. These represent fundamentally different settlement methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution methodologies. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price levels (YES if price falls within specific dollar ranges or thresholds), while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (YES if March 27 close is higher than the prior trading day close). These two approaches will produce contradictory outcomes for the same underlying WTI price on March 27, 2026.Hero Tip:
Do not assume the same bet outcome across platforms. On Kalshi, you are betting on absolute price levels; on Polymarket, you are betting on directional movement relative to the previous day. A market that resolves YES on Kalshi (e.g., price at $95.50) could resolve NO on Polymarket if the prior day closed at $96.00. Verify your position logic separately for each platform before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on March 27, 2026 falls within any of 15 predefined absolute price bands (below $92.00, $92.00–$92.99, $93.00–$93.99, $94.00–$94.99, $95.00–$95.99, $96.00–$96.99, $97.00–$97.99, $98.00–$98.99, $99.00–$99.99, $100.00–$100.99, $101.00–$101.99, $102.00–$102.99, $103.00–$103.99, $104.00–$104.99, or above $104.99). Resolves NO only if price falls in the gaps: $93.00–$93.99 is covered, but the specification implies NO resolution for prices in uncovered ranges if any exist (however, the 15 bands appear to cover all realistic outcomes). The resolution is purely on absolute settlement price: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 27, 2026 is between [X] and [Y], then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP if the March 27, 2026 close price is higher than the prior trading day close price; resolves DOWN if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or if no trade occurs. Resolution is purely on relative price movement, not absolute levels: 'This market will resolve to UP if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on March 27, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.' The prior trading day is determined by CME trading-hours schedule (typically the prior Friday if March 27 is a Monday), and prices are sourced from Pyth with fallback to CME Group official daily close.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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