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400,720

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30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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39%

VS.

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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 27?
kalshi
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 27?

Volume:
$1,331,750

$99 to 99.99

 - Kalshi

$99 to 99.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 28, 2026

Closed: Mar 27, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$99 to 99.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$74,612
N/A
N/A
$47,430
Settled
Yes
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 27?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$984
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$91.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$188,580
N/A
N/A
$78,127
Settled
No
kalshi

$105 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$175,505
N/A
N/A
$91,598
Settled
No
kalshi

$92 to 92.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$126,579
N/A
N/A
$69,155
Settled
No
kalshi

$93 to 93.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100,378
N/A
N/A
$60,268
Settled
No
kalshi

$98 to 98.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$89,818
N/A
N/A
$57,424
Settled
No
kalshi

$96 to 96.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,748
N/A
N/A
$49,150
Settled
No
kalshi

$97 to 97.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$81,643
N/A
N/A
$51,055
Settled
No
kalshi

$94 to 94.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76,425
N/A
N/A
$55,735
Settled
No
kalshi

$95 to 95.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75,899
N/A
N/A
$51,861
Settled
No
kalshi

$100 to 100.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,218
N/A
N/A
$46,955
Settled
No
kalshi

$102 to 102.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51,667
N/A
N/A
$43,936
Settled
No
kalshi

$101 to 101.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,127
N/A
N/A
$44,434
Settled
No
kalshi

$104 to 104.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,037
N/A
N/A
$42,309
Settled
No
kalshi

$103 to 103.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,530
N/A
N/A
$39,732
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks WTI Crude Oil price movement on March 27, 2026. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price levels within specific dollar ranges, while Polymarket resolves based on directional change (Up/Down) relative to the prior trading day's close. These represent fundamentally different settlement methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution methodologies. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price levels (YES if price falls within specific dollar ranges or thresholds), while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (YES if March 27 close is higher than the prior trading day close). These two approaches will produce contradictory outcomes for the same underlying WTI price on March 27, 2026.Hero tip: Do not assume the same bet outcome across platforms. On Kalshi, you are betting on absolute price levels; on Polymarket, you are betting on directional movement relative to the previous day. A market that resolves YES on Kalshi (e.g., price at $95.50) could resolve NO on Polymarket if the prior day closed at $96.00. Verify your position logic separately for each platform before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on March 27, 2026 falls within any of 15 predefined absolute price bands (below $92.00, $92.00–$92.99, $93.00–$93.99, $94.00–$94.99, $95.00–$95.99, $96.00–$96.99, $97.00–$97.99, $98.00–$98.99, $99.00–$99.99, $100.00–$100.99, $101.00–$101.99, $102.00–$102.99, $103.00–$103.99, $104.00–$104.99, or above $104.99). Resolves NO only if price falls in the gaps: $93.00–$93.99 is covered, but the specification implies NO resolution for prices in uncovered ranges if any exist (however, the 15 bands appear to cover all realistic outcomes). The resolution is purely on absolute settlement price: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 27, 2026 is between [X] and [Y], then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP if the March 27, 2026 close price is higher than the prior trading day close price; resolves DOWN if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or if no trade occurs. Resolution is purely on relative price movement, not absolute levels: 'This market will resolve to UP if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on March 27, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.' The prior trading day is determined by CME trading-hours schedule (typically the prior Friday if March 27 is a Monday), and prices are sourced from Pyth with fallback to CME Group official daily close.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.