TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$98,950,588

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,171,226,487

333,737

Markets across

33,115

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,155

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Science and Technology
Entertainment
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
predict
opinion
polymarket

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Total volume:
$35,572,854
Volume 24h:
$71
97%
Liquidity:
$67,757
12%
Open interest:
$76,824N/A

No IPO by December 31, 2026

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

85%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 86¢ buys you 116 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $116 | Net Profit: $16 Multiplier: 1.16x | ROI: 16% | APY: 54% 127 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No IPO by December 31, 2026

Trade
85%
Yes 86¢No 16¢
2¢
$20,842
$463,858
0%
4%
N/A
4mo 1w
active
opinion

No IPO before 2027

Trade
77%
Yes 85¢No 85¢
70¢
N/A
$1,122,962
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

No IPO by December 31, 2026

Trade
N/A
N/A
1.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
81%
Yes 85.5¢No 50.5¢
Avg: 24.6¢Max: 70¢
opinion

<500B

Trade
56%
Yes 99¢No 98.6¢
97.6¢
N/A
$8,065,293
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

<500B

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$6,996
$304,514
0%
0.06%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

<500B

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
28%
Yes 49.9¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 49.1¢Max: 97.6¢
opinion

500–750B

Trade
42%
Yes 14¢No 14¢
-72¢
N/A
$7,586,053
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

500–750B

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.8¢
0.6¢
$7,548
$166,942
0%
0.21%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

500–750B

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
21.5%
Yes 7.4¢No 56.9¢
Avg: -35.7¢Max: 0.6¢
opinion

1.25T–1.5T

Trade
14%
Yes 97.9¢No 99.5¢
97.4¢
N/A
$6,003,331
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

1.25T–1.5T

Trade
2%
Yes 2.6¢No 99.6¢
2.2¢
$8,466
$524,939
0%
0.02%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

1.25T–1.5T

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
8%
Yes 50.2¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 49.8¢Max: 97.4¢
opinion

1T–1.25T

Trade
10%
Yes 20¢No 20¢
-60¢
N/A
$4,778,577
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

1T–1.25T

Trade
4%
Yes 4.4¢No 96.3¢
0.7¢
$7,240
$217,569
0%
0.27%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

1T–1.25T

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
7%
Yes 12.2¢No 58.2¢
Avg: -29.6¢Max: 0.7¢
polymarket

1.5T+

Trade
7%
Yes 7.6¢No 94.2¢
1.8¢
$9,698
$153,309
0.03%
1%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
opinion

1.5T+

Trade
5%
Yes 99¢No 96.8¢
95.8¢
N/A
$3,455,798
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

1.5T+

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
6%
Yes 53.3¢No 95.5¢
Avg: 65.7¢Max: 99.6¢
polymarket

750B–1T

Trade
5%
Yes 5.1¢No 95.3¢
0.4¢
$6,967
$174,722
0.01%
0.24%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
opinion

750B–1T

Trade
2%
Yes 22.3¢No 22.3¢
-55.4¢
N/A
$2,554,987
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

750B–1T

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3.5%
Yes 13.7¢No 58.8¢
Avg: 14.8¢Max: 99.5¢
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks whether OpenAI will undergo an initial public offering by December 31, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability stands at 81.5%, according to data from Opinion and Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by the primary exchange's official listing page, with a reliable secondary source used if necessary. Watch for any official announcements or filings leading up to the end of the betting period on December 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms share identical resolution logic for OpenAI's IPO market cap brackets and no-IPO conditionPrimary resolution logic: Primary exchange's official listing page, with reliable sources as fallback

Core resolution logic:

  • Market cap = shares outstanding × closing share price on first trading day
  • Exact midpoint between brackets resolves to higher range
  • No IPO by Dec 31 2026 resolves to "No IPO" outcome
  • Use abbreviated session close if trading interrupted; next day if no official close

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Trading Interruption: Resolves based on official closing price of abbreviated session; if none, next trading day's close counts as first day
  • Missing Data: Uses another reliable source if primary exchange data unavailable
Timing: Resolves after official market close of OpenAI's first trading day, or December 31, 2026 if no IPO occursOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Predict

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Opinion

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the OpenAI IPO market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of an IPO occurring. It displays cumulative volume of $35,572,844 and recent 24-hour volume at $1,520, letting you see market momentum and consensus across platforms like Polymarket and Opinion. This view helps compare how different prediction markets evaluate the same corporate milestone.

On Polymarket, this market currently reflects a strong tilt toward Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? at 85.0%, which may diverge from traditional analyst views that incorporate fundamentals and regulatory risk. Analysts often weigh factors like valuation targets and market timing that aren't fully priced in by traders. The spread of 8.5 between platforms also shows how market sentiment can shift independently of expert projections, especially with new news on regulatory pathways or competitor activity.

User demographics and liquidity conditions on each venue create different pricing dynamics. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? at 85.0%, while Opinion leans toward No IPO before 2027 at 76.5%. This gap can widen when one platform has deeper liquidity or more active traders focusing on short-term news, whereas the other may reflect a slower, longer-term consensus.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch for official filings, regulatory approvals, and any last-minute strategic shifts that confirm whether the IPO actually happens. The closing market cap at the day of the IPO will be the final reference point, closing the market definitively.

Key signals include regulatory updates from the SEC, earnings reports that affect valuation expectations, and competitor IPO activity that could delay timing. Any announcement about leadership changes or strategic pivots may also shift probabilities. Media coverage of investor interest or major funding rounds can cause rapid moves, especially when one platform's volume spikes relative to the other.