TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
opinion
polymarket
predict

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Total volume:
$35,998,784
Volume 24h:
$500
53%
Liquidity:
$316,523
6%
Open interest:
$122,308N/A

No IPO by December 31, 2026

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 95.7¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 23% 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No IPO by December 31, 2026

Trade
95%
Yes 95.7¢No 5.4¢
1.1¢
$55,068
$813,230
0.02%
0.61%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

No IPO before 2027

Trade
95%
Yes 98.3¢No 99.9¢
98.2¢
N/A
$1,122,992
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
predict

No IPO by December 31, 2026

Trade
94%
Yes 94.9¢No 6.2¢
1.1¢
$97,936
$4,448
0%
51%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
95.1%
Yes 96.3¢No 37.2¢
Avg: 33.5¢Max: 98.2¢
predict

1.5T+

Trade
6%
3%
Yes 5.9¢No 94.1¢
—
$29,922
$737
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

1.5T+

Trade
5%
Yes 96.7¢No 96.7¢
93.4¢
N/A
$3,455,798
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

1.5T+

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.2¢
0.5¢
$11,039
$163,305
0.18%
0.19%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.1%
Yes 34.6¢No 96.7¢
Avg: 47¢Max: 93.4¢
predict

750B–1T

Trade
30%
25%
Yes 29.9¢No 70.1¢
—
$29,772
$30
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

750B–1T

Trade
2%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
N/A
$2,554,987
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

750B–1T

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
0.5¢
$13,782
$187,209
0%
0.15%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 43.2¢No 89.6¢
Avg: 49.3¢Max: 98¢
opinion

500–750B

Trade
14%
Yes 98.3¢No 98.3¢
96.6¢
N/A
$7,586,058
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

500–750B

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.8¢
0.4¢
$10,284
$176,255
0%
0.17%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

500–750B

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 49.5¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 48.5¢Max: 96.6¢
predict

<500B

Trade
100%
95%
Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢
—
$31,479
$31
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

<500B

Trade
56%
Yes 98.6¢No 98.6¢
97.2¢
N/A
$8,065,293
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

<500B

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
0.5¢
$9,987
$322,991
0%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 66.3¢No 66.3¢
Avg: 48.9¢Max: 97.2¢
opinion

1T–1.25T

Trade
10%
Yes 19.9¢No 19.9¢
—
N/A
$4,778,577
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

1T–1.25T

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$14,379
$227,736
0%
0.06%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

1T–1.25T

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 10.2¢No 59.8¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
opinion

1.25T–1.5T

Trade
14%
Yes 97.9¢No 99.5¢
97.4¢
N/A
$6,003,331
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

1.25T–1.5T

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$12,876
$535,777
0%
0.2%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

1.25T–1.5T

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.3%
Yes 49.2¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 48.8¢Max: 97.4¢
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks the probability of OpenAI’s market capitalization being less than $500 billion at market close on its IPO day. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Opinion, Polymarket, and Predict indicates a 99.7% probability of this outcome. Resolution will be based on the official closing price from the primary exchange’s listing page, with reliable sources used as fallback. This event group tracks predictions about OpenAI's market capitalization at the close of its Initial Public Offering (IPO) day, and traders should watch for any news regarding the IPO date as the resolution date is estimated to be January 1, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms share identical resolution logic for OpenAI's IPO market cap brackets and no-IPO conditionPrimary resolution logic: Primary exchange's official listing page, with reliable sources as fallback

Core resolution logic:

  • Market cap = shares outstanding × closing share price on first trading day
  • Exact midpoint between brackets resolves to higher range
  • No IPO by Dec 31 2026 resolves to "No IPO" outcome
  • Use abbreviated session close if trading interrupted; next day if no official close

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Trading Interruption: Resolves based on official closing price of abbreviated session; if none, next trading day's close counts as first day
  • Missing Data: Uses another reliable source if primary exchange data unavailable
Timing: Resolves after official market close of OpenAI's first trading day, or December 31, 2026 if no IPO occursOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Predict

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Opinion

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on whether OpenAI will have an initial public offering, and if so, what its closing market capitalization will be. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $35,998,784, with $200 traded in the last 24 hours. The Polymarket currently favors Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? at 95.2%, while Opinion also leans toward Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? at 94.9%. This provides a comprehensive overview of sentiment surrounding the OpenAI IPO market.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially incorporating information and perspectives not readily captured in traditional analyst forecasts. While analyst reports provide expert opinions, this market aggregates the views of numerous traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, access to information, or biases. It’s valuable to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion on the likelihood of an OpenAI IPO and its potential valuation.

Prices on Polymarket and Opinion for this market can diverge due to a number of factors. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same event. Trading volumes also play a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee mechanisms of Polymarket and Opinion can subtly influence trading behavior and, consequently, the observed prices.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether OpenAI has completed an initial public offering and, if so, the closing market capitalization on the first day of trading. The outcome will be determined by publicly available data from established financial sources, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result for this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from OpenAI regarding IPO plans, changes in the overall market conditions for tech IPOs, and major shifts in OpenAI’s financial performance are all potential catalysts. Regulatory developments affecting IPOs or AI companies could also play a role. Positive or negative news regarding OpenAI’s technology, partnerships, or competitive landscape could also influence trader sentiment and, therefore, the price action in this market.