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$1,813,780,524

458,563

Markets across

34,906

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,790

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5

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VS.

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62%

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Science and Technology
OpenAI IPO by...?
kalshi
predict
polymarket
opinion

Will OpenAI complete an IPO by December 31, 2026?

Total volume:
$23,600,168
Volume 24h:
$1,192,826N/A
Liquidity:
$85,058
69%
Open interest:
$638,306
0.88%

Before Jun 1, 2027

 - Kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2027 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jul 1, 2027

When will OpenAI IPO?

57%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 57¢ buys you 175 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $175 | Net Profit: $75 Multiplier: 1.75x | ROI: 75% | APY: 155% 219 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2027

Trade
57%
Yes 57¢No 45¢
2¢
N/A
$33,781
0%
3%
$12,096
7mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Before May 1, 2027

Trade
42%
6%
Yes 45¢No 59¢
4¢
N/A
$23,669
0.73%
1%
$7,698
7mo 1w 2d
active
predict

June 30, 2027

Trade
40%
1%
Yes 41¢No 62¢
3¢
$2,348
$39,318
0%
0.95%
N/A
8mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
40%
Yes 40¢No 61¢
1¢
$16,348
$9,067
4%
91%
N/A
8mo 1w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
39.9%
Yes 40.5¢No 61.5¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade
26%
Yes 27¢No 74¢
1¢
N/A
$38,602
0.38%
3%
$10,296
7mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
21%
1%
Yes 21¢No 80¢
1¢
$11,343
$6,652
9%
193%
N/A
5mo 1w
active
predict

March 31, 2027

Trade
20%
Yes 22¢No 82¢
4¢
$7,920
$1,261
0%
4%
N/A
8mo 1w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
25.1%
Yes 23.3¢No 78.7¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
22%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
N/A
$30,487
0%
1%
$10,130
7mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
7%
Yes 10¢No 93¢
3¢
N/A
$46,927
3%
3%
$17,886
7mo 1w 2d
active
opinion

December 31, 2026

Trade
19%
Yes 25¢No 99.9¢
24.9¢
N/A
$1,178,801
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
active
predict

December 31, 2026

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
$4,827
$1,101
0%
0.01%
N/A
8mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
3%
Yes 3.5¢No 96.9¢
0.4¢
$40,436
$1,088,848
0.12%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$152,260
1%
1%
$34,333
7mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.3%
Yes 9.4¢No 97.4¢
Avg: 6.8¢Max: 24.9¢
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$101,647
4%
4%
$21,030
7mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$93,287
0%
0.13%
$26,136
7mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2025

View
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$290
N/A
N/A
$152
7mo 1w 2d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$102,521
N/A
N/A
$93,558
7mo 1w 2d
No
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,072
N/A
N/A
$8,150
7mo 1w 2d
No
kalshi

Before May 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,739
N/A
N/A
$10,619
7mo 1w 2d
No
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,714
N/A
N/A
$4,844
7mo 1w 2d
No
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,598
N/A
N/A
$3,078
7mo 1w 2d
No
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,145
N/A
N/A
$1,044
7mo 1w 2d
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2025

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$527
N/A
N/A
$513
7mo 1w 2d
No
opinion

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,784,240
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$957,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
Total markets: 25 of 37

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of OpenAI completing an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by various dates. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Kalshi, Predict, Polymarket, and Opinion indicates a 50.0% probability of an IPO occurring by the listed date, with a 47.0% probability assigned to the second-most likely outcome. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, confirming the IPO through official company announcements and news sources; acquisition of OpenAI by a public company results in immediate “No” resolution. Keep an eye on OpenAI’s official statements and filings leading up to the resolution date estimate of July 1, 2027, which marks the end of the betting period for this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets resolve on 'confirmation' of an IPO, while Polymarket markets resolve on the IPO's completion. This creates a timing discrepancy and potential for differing outcomes.Hero tip: Focus on markets with resolution dates closer to the present, as the uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO plans increases with time. Pay attention to official OpenAI announcements for clarity on IPO plans.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if OpenAI completes an IPO by the listed date, based on official announcements and credible news. Acquisition by a public company results in 'No' resolution.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if OpenAI *confirms* an IPO before a specified date. The definition of 'confirmation' is open to interpretation and may not align with a public announcement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

An IPO is confirmed upon any of three triggering events: SEC effectiveness of the Form S-1 registration statement, pricing of the offering, or assignment of a ticker symbol by a securities exchange. Once any of these events occurs, the market resolves to Yes immediately, regardless of when actual trading begins. The event tracks confirmation across multiple time windows spanning from May 1, 2026 through June 1, 2027, with each window representing a distinct resolution date. If confirmation occurs before any given deadline, that market resolves affirmatively even if trading is delayed beyond that date.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the collective wisdom of prediction markets regarding the timing of the OpenAI IPO. Currently, the Polymarket and Kalshi markets are aggregated to provide a comprehensive view. Total volume across these platforms is $23,600,168, with $9,582 traded in the last 24 hours. The goal is to synthesize the probabilities offered across multiple venues into a single consensus view for the OpenAI IPO market. While Polymarket currently shows a 39.5% probability for a specific outcome, Kalshi suggests a 57.0% chance of a different result.

Prediction market odds often provide a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or incentives, while this market reflects the aggregated opinions of a diverse group of traders who have 'skin in the game'. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as traders are incentivized to assess probabilities realistically. While analyst predictions for an OpenAI IPO vary widely, this market provides a real-time, quantifiable estimate of when an IPO might occur, based on actual money at stake. It’s a useful data point alongside traditional research.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and risk tolerance, leading to differing interpretations of available information. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform impacts price discovery; Polymarket has seen volume of $23,600,168, while Kalshi has a different level of activity. These factors contribute to discrepancies in the odds offered for the OpenAI IPO market, even though both are tracking the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether OpenAI has officially launched an initial public offering before the specified date. The outcome will be determined by examining official announcements from OpenAI, filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and reporting from reputable financial news sources. The goal is to provide a clear and objective determination of whether an IPO has occurred, based on publicly available information.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from OpenAI regarding IPO plans, changes in the company’s financial performance, and broader market conditions are all key catalysts. Positive news, such as strong revenue growth or a favorable regulatory environment, could increase the probability of an IPO, driving up prices. Conversely, negative developments, like a slowdown in growth or increased regulatory scrutiny, could decrease the likelihood and lower prices. Major economic events and shifts in investor sentiment could also influence trading activity in this market.