TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Fed Decision in October?
kalshi
polymarket

Fed Decision in October?

Total volume:
$51,225,835
Volume 24h:
$6,959,735
320%
Liquidity:
$3,486,739
2%
Open interest:
$5,162,290
6%

No change

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 29, 2026

Time left: 14d:00h:09m

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

77%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% APY not meaningful 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

Trade
77%
Yes 77¢No 24¢
1¢
$165,278
$12,009,149
29%
54%
N/A
2w
active
kalshi

Fed maintains rate

Trade
76%
5%
Yes 76¢No 25¢
1¢
N/A
$5,171,089
24%
39%
$1,587,759
1w 6d 14h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
76.3%
Yes 76.5¢No 24.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
26%
6%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
N/A
$3,489,888
20%
34%
$1,293,256
1w 6d 14h
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
24%
4%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
$180,718
$9,370,873
19%
40%
N/A
2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24.2%
Yes 24.5¢No 76.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Hike >25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$942,979
2%
5%
$876,842
1w 6d 14h
active
kalshi

Cut >25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$236,061
1%
3%
$222,607
1w 6d 14h
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
0.1¢
$612,569
$5,368,424
13%
37%
N/A
2w
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,300,765
22%
40%
$1,181,825
1w 6d 14h
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$896,970
$6,935,214
3%
31%
N/A
2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,631,205
$6,401,393
2%
33%
N/A
2w
active
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks the probability of whether the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates following its October 2026 meeting. Currently, the consensus probability of no change to Fed interest rates after the meeting is 76.5%. This aggregate reflects data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on whether the Federal Reserve enacts a 25bps hike on October 28, 2026, as defined by the resolution source. Market participants should watch the economic data released leading up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026, as this will likely influence final predictions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves 'Yes' for any change or no change, while Polymarket offers specific markets for each outcome (increase, decrease, no change) with defined thresholds.Hero tip: Kalshi's broad resolution criteria mean a small rate change will still resolve the market to 'Yes'. Polymarket allows for more precise bets on the magnitude of the change.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket questions specifically ask about changes of 25+ bps, 50+ bps, or no change. It also includes rounding rules for changes not expressed in 25 bps increments. Resolution source is the FOMC statement: 'If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.'
  • Kalshi: Kalshi resolves 'Yes' if the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps, a Hike of 25bps, a Hike of 0bps, a Cut of 25bps, or a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026. Essentially, any action or inaction resolves the market to 'Yes'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the Federal Reserve's policy decision at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. Outcomes are mutually exclusive: the market will resolve to Yes for exactly one outcome representing either a rate cut (greater than 25 basis points, exactly 25 basis points), maintaining the current rate (0 basis points), or a rate hike (25 basis points or greater than 25 basis points). If the scheduled meeting is canceled and does not occur, the "Fed maintains rate" outcome resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. Only one outcome can resolve to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the likely outcome of the October 2026 Federal Reserve decision regarding interest rates. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms exceeds $51,225,788, with $6,943,870 traded in the last 24 hours. The October Fed decision market aggregates data from multiple sources to provide a comprehensive look at predictions. Polymarket currently shows a probability of 76.5% for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?, while Kalshi also indicates Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? with a chance of 76.0%.

Prediction market odds often provide a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or institutional pressures, while prediction markets aggregate the views of a diverse range of participants with financial incentives to be accurate. This market, for example, reflects real-money bets on the likelihood of a specific Fed action. While analyst forecasts can be valuable, the aggregated probabilities in this market can offer a complementary and sometimes more accurate signal, especially as the Oct 29, 2026 approaches and more information becomes available.

Prices for this market on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of participants with differing opinions and risk tolerances, which can influence pricing. Additionally, the volume traded on each platform – currently $51,225,788 overall – isn’t evenly distributed, potentially leading to price discrepancies. These differences reflect the independent price discovery process occurring on each venue, offering a broader perspective on expectations for the October Fed decision.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Federal Reserve’s official announcement regarding interest rate decisions made at their October 2026 meeting. The outcome will be determined by the action taken by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and will be publicly available through official Federal Reserve communications. Traders should monitor these announcements as the resolution date approaches to understand the final outcome of this market.

Several key economic indicators and events could significantly impact this market between now and Oct 29, 2026. Inflation data releases, employment reports, and GDP growth figures will all be closely watched by traders. Unexpected shifts in these indicators could lead to reassessments of the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. Furthermore, statements from Federal Reserve officials, geopolitical events, and any significant disruptions to the global economy could also influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding market movements.