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342,259

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4,572

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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Fed Decision in October?
Financials
polymarket
kalshi
opinion
predict

Fed Decision in October?

Total volume:
$1,111,940
Volume 24h:
$19,052
67%
Liquidity:
$1,472,094
27%
Open interest:
$6,106
3%

$31

 - Kalshi

$31 - Kalshi

100%

+4%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

Vol.

$1.7k

·

Resolves Oct 28, 2026

Will the official Settlement Price for the Current Auction of CARB Joint Auction #48 be at least $31?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 33 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates after its October 2026 meeting. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 99.0%. Data is drawn from Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, and Predict, with resolution based on the FOMC statement and the Federal Reserve's official website. Watch the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 28, 2026, for the key rate announcement that will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same resolution criteria based on the FOMC announcement and the Federal Reserve's official website for the October 2026 meeting.Primary resolution logic: FOMC statement after the October 2026 meeting and the Federal Reserve's official website

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range
  • Changes are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points
  • If no change occurs, the 'No change' outcome applies

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Partial Change Rounding: If the change is 12.5 bps, it will be rounded up to 25 bps and resolve to the relevant bracket
  • No Statement Fallback: If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the 'No change' bracket
Timing: The market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issuedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

If the official Settlement Price for the Current Auction of CARB Joint Auction Number 48 is at least $31, the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Opinion

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the October Fed rate cut market aggregates activity across multiple prediction venues, showing real-time probabilities and trading volume. It tracks how participants on different platforms price the likelihood of a rate cut, hold, or hike following the Federal Reserve's October 2026 policy meeting. With a total volume of $970,508 and 24-hour volume at $18,286, it reflects market sentiment and liquidity around this key monetary policy event.

Price differences between Polymarket and Opinion can stem from varying user bases, liquidity conditions, and market design features. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while another could reflect institutional positioning. Right now, Polymarket favors Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? at 71.5%, whereas Opinion leans toward No change at 76.0%, showing how distinct participant behavior shapes pricing.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Federal Reserve's decision is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rate move — whether a cut, hike, or hold — will be compared against market predictions to settle all positions. Timing aligns with the official policy announcement schedule, ensuring clarity for all participants.

Key signals include upcoming U.S. economic data releases such as CPI, employment reports, and GDP revisions, all of which influence Fed policy expectations. Central banking speeches, global economic shifts, and market volatility can also shift probabilities. As Oct 28, 2026 approaches, traders will closely watch any Fed communications or surprise policy moves that could dramatically alter the trajectory of this market.