TOTAL VOLUME:

$143.5b

24H VOL:

$195,145,316

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,692,829,820

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,731,064,451

482,647

Markets across

36,631

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,924

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Fed Decision in October?
kalshi
polymarket

Fed Decision in October?

Total volume:
$57,243,789
Volume 24h:
$1,104,173
62%
Liquidity:
$5,984,090
50%
Open interest:
$5,654,831
2%

Fed maintains rate

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 29, 2026

Time left: 10d:23h:27m

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

87%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 87¢ buys you 115 shares | Odds: 87% Total Payout: $115 | Net Profit: $15 Multiplier: 1.15x | ROI: 15% APY not meaningful 10 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fed maintains rate

Trade
87%
Yes 87¢No 14¢
1¢
N/A
$5,636,615
1%
42%
$1,790,394
1w 3d 23h
active
polymarket

No change

Trade
87%
Yes 87¢No 14¢
1¢
$1,171,282
$13,367,160
1%
58%
N/A
1w 4d 9h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
86.6%
Yes 87¢No 14¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
14%
1%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
$1,107,295
$10,177,592
2%
42%
N/A
1w 4d 9h
active
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
N/A
$4,067,162
1%
52%
$1,443,509
1w 3d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
13.4%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Hike >25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$984,801
0.49%
9%
$908,147
1w 3d 23h
active
kalshi

Cut >25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$237,813
0.39%
3%
$224,360
1w 3d 23h
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,407,362
2%
43%
$1,288,422
1w 3d 23h
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$836,125
$7,539,395
5%
28%
N/A
1w 4d 9h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$1,132,827
$6,227,726
3%
46%
N/A
1w 4d 9h
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,736,562
$7,598,161
0.87%
31%
N/A
1w 4d 9h
active
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at 0bps at their October 2026 meeting. Currently, the consensus probability of this outcome—that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 0bps—is 87.0%. This prediction aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on whether the Federal Reserve enacts a 0bps hike on October 28, 2026, as defined by the resolution source. Market participants should watch the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026, for key signals regarding their decision.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves 'Yes' for any change or no change, while Polymarket offers specific markets for each outcome (increase, decrease, no change) with defined thresholds.Hero tip: Kalshi's broad resolution criteria mean a small rate change will still resolve the market to 'Yes'. Polymarket allows for more precise bets on the magnitude of the change.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket questions specifically ask about changes of 25+ bps, 50+ bps, or no change. It also includes rounding rules for changes not expressed in 25 bps increments. Resolution source is the FOMC statement: 'If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.'
  • Kalshi: Kalshi resolves 'Yes' if the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps, a Hike of 25bps, a Hike of 0bps, a Cut of 25bps, or a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026. Essentially, any action or inaction resolves the market to 'Yes'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the Federal Reserve's policy decision at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. Outcomes are mutually exclusive: the market will resolve to Yes for exactly one outcome representing either a rate cut (greater than 25 basis points, exactly 25 basis points), maintaining the current rate (0 basis points), or a rate hike (25 basis points or greater than 25 basis points). If the scheduled meeting is canceled and does not occur, the "Fed maintains rate" outcome resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. Only one outcome can resolve to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the likely outcome of the October 2026 Federal Reserve decision regarding interest rates. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms exceeds $57,243,789, with $644,407 traded in the last 24 hours. The October Fed decision market aggregates data from multiple sources to provide a comprehensive look at predictions. Polymarket currently shows a probability of 86.5% for Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?, while Kalshi also indicates Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? with a chance of 87.0%.

Prediction market odds often provide a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or institutional pressures, while prediction markets aggregate the views of a diverse range of participants with financial incentives to be accurate. This market, for example, reflects real-money bets on the likelihood of a specific Fed action. While analyst forecasts can be valuable, the aggregated probabilities in this market can offer a complementary and sometimes more accurate signal, especially as the Oct 29, 2026 approaches and more information becomes available.

Prices for this market on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of participants with differing opinions and risk tolerances, which can influence pricing. Additionally, the volume traded on each platform – currently $57,243,789 overall – isn’t evenly distributed, potentially leading to price discrepancies. These differences reflect the independent price discovery process occurring on each venue, offering a broader perspective on expectations for the October Fed decision.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Federal Reserve’s official announcement regarding interest rate decisions made at their October 2026 meeting. The outcome will be determined by the action taken by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and will be publicly available through official Federal Reserve communications. Traders should monitor these announcements as the resolution date approaches to understand the final outcome of this market.

Several key economic indicators and events could significantly impact this market between now and Oct 29, 2026. Inflation data releases, employment reports, and GDP growth figures will all be closely watched by traders. Unexpected shifts in these indicators could lead to reassessments of the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. Furthermore, statements from Federal Reserve officials, geopolitical events, and any significant disruptions to the global economy could also influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding market movements.