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What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of July 13 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of July 13 2026?

Volume:
$194,151

7,520 or above

 - Kalshi

7,520 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 17, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 1:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

7,520 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,676
N/A
N/A
$21,127
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $745

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $755

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,942
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,515 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,760
N/A
N/A
$1,661
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,510 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,257
N/A
N/A
$1,097
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $750

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,271
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$266
N/A
N/A
$261
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,505 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$67
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,525 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,933
N/A
N/A
$3,794
Settled
No
kalshi

7,530 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,791
N/A
N/A
$3,843
Settled
No
kalshi

7,535 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,023
N/A
N/A
$3,345
Settled
No
kalshi

7,545 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,456
N/A
N/A
$9,220
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $740

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,957
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $775

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,715
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,540 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,541
N/A
N/A
$4,209
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $735

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $720

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,818
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $785

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,710
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $730

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,567
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $765

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,138
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $770

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $760

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,687
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $725

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $780

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,751
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,550 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,646
N/A
N/A
$779
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 74

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 (SPY) will reach specific price levels during the week of July 13, 2026. Kalshi offers 60 binary markets based on the index value at exactly 1pm EDT on July 13, while Polymarket offers markets for intraweek HIGH and LOW prices during regular trading hours across the entire week.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses a single point-in-time settlement (1pm EDT on July 13) while Polymarket uses intraweek extremes (any HIGH or LOW touched during regular trading hours across the full week). The markets measure fundamentally different outcomes despite both referencing SPY price levels.Hero tip: Understand your bet: Kalshi = snapshot at 1pm on July 13 only. Polymarket = any touch during the entire week. Polymarket HIGH markets are easier to win (more time for SPY to peak); Kalshi requires SPY to be above the threshold at a specific moment. If you expect volatility, Polymarket offers better odds; if you have a conviction about SPY's level at exactly 1pm on July 13, Kalshi is your venue.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Point-in-time settlement on July 13, 2026 at 1pm EDT. 60 binary markets with thresholds from 7374.9999 to 7629.9999 (5-point increments). Resolution: YES if SPY index > threshold at exactly 1pm EDT; NO otherwise. No intraday extremes considered; only the snapshot value matters.
  • Polymarket: Intraweek extremes during regular trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET) for the week of July 13–17, 2026. 9 HIGH markets ($755–$785) and 8 LOW markets ($720–$750). Resolution: YES if any 1-minute candle reaches or exceeds (HIGH) or reaches or falls to/below (LOW) the target price at any point during the week. Data source: Pyth 1-minute candles; fallback to official exchange daily high/low if Pyth unavailable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of July 13 2026?

Kalshi

The S&P 500 price event consists of multiple binary markets, each tied to a distinct price threshold ranging from 7,375 to 7,670 in 5-point increments. For each market, resolution depends on the official S&P 500 index value recorded at 1pm EDT on July 13, 2026. A market resolves affirmatively if the index closes above its specified threshold (e.g., above 7,374.9999 for the 7,375 market, above 7,379.9999 for the 7,380 market, and so forth through the 7,670 market). All markets close on July 13, 2026 and expire upon the sooner of the first official data release or one week after July 13, 2026. Per the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets.

Frequently asked questions

The S&P 500 price target market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi about where the index will trade during the week of July 13, 2026. This market captures real-time consensus on whether the broad equity benchmark will reach specific price levels, with volume of $194,151 across both venues. Traders use these markets to hedge portfolio exposure, express directional views, or speculate on near-term market moves. The dashboard displays competing forecasts side-by-side, letting you compare how different prediction platforms price the same underlying event.

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders rather than relying on a handful of institutional estimates. Traders incorporate breaking news, earnings surprises, and macroeconomic shifts faster than consensus revisions typically update. This market's odds reflect live market sentiment weighted by participant conviction—those most confident in their view put larger stakes behind it. Analyst forecasts tend to be stickier and less responsive to intraday volatility, making prediction markets a useful cross-check on where professional consensus may lag.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, corporate earnings surprises, and geopolitical developments that shift risk sentiment. Unexpected economic weakness or strength can trigger sharp repricing across equity futures and spot markets, flowing directly into prediction market odds. Earnings season activity, credit market stress, or shifts in bond yields also influence trader positioning. Technical levels and options expiry dates may create momentum or reversals. Real-time news flow and changes in implied volatility can cause rapid swings in this market's price as traders update their conviction on where the index will close.