TOTAL VOLUME:

$131.1b

24H VOL:

$96,379,093

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,313,328,591

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,365,220,014

375,151

Markets across

30,628

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,807

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

40%

VS.

Kalshi:

60%

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How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
polymarket
predict
kalshi

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Total volume:
$709,228
Volume 24h:
$59,764
164%
Liquidity:
$259,006
10%
Open interest:
$46,784
24%

Exactly 2

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 3, 2027

Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

57%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 57¢ buys you 175 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $175 | Net Profit: $75 Multiplier: 1.75x | ROI: 75% High Projected APY: 662% 101 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 2

Trade
57%
Yes 57¢No 44¢
1¢
N/A
$10,335
3%
222%
$7,160
3mo 1w 4d
active
predict

2 (50 bps)

Trade
57%
3%
Yes 63¢No 48¢
11¢
$5,626
$2,127
9%
132%
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

2 (50 bps)

Trade
55%
7%
Yes 56¢No 46¢
2¢
$16,557
$126,740
5%
18%
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
56.3%
Yes 58.7¢No 46¢
Avg: 4.7¢Max: 11¢
predict

4 (100 bps)

Trade
49%
2%
Yes 49¢No 51¢
—
$2,110
$2
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

At least 4

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$4,261
0%
835,422%
$3,161
3mo 1w 4d
active
polymarket

4 (100 bps)

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.2¢
0.4¢
$48,018
$44,471
7%
27%
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
17.3%
Yes 17.7¢No 82.7¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
predict

3 (75 bps)

Trade
35%
16%
Yes 50¢No 81¢
31¢
$2,824
$1,013
7%
55%
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

3 (75 bps)

Trade
34%
8%
Yes 37.3¢No 68.7¢
6¢
$15,846
$98,081
6%
32%
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Exactly 3

Trade
30%
2%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
N/A
$31,602
39%
681%
$24,476
3mo 1w 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
33%
Yes 39.1¢No 73.6¢
Avg: 12.7¢Max: 31¢
polymarket

1 (25 bps)

Trade
10%
4%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
$107,803
$188,850
11%
137%
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Exactly 1

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
N/A
$11,975
5%
271%
$8,761
3mo 1w 4d
active
predict

1 (25 bps)

Trade
9%
Yes 10¢No 93¢
3¢
$9,105
$2,151
0%
3%
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
9.3%
Yes 9.7¢No 92.3¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

5+ (125+ bps)

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.6¢
0.4¢
$51,071
$39,177
1%
29%
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
active
predict

5+ (125+ bps)

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.4¢
predict

0 (0 bps)

View
4%
1%
Yes 4¢No 96¢
—
$45
$4,799
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
No
polymarket

0 (0 bps)

View
0%
2%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$140,420
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Exactly 0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,226
N/A
N/A
$3,226
3mo 1w 4d
No
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks whether there will be exactly two Federal Reserve rate hikes of 25 basis points during the 2026 calendar year, including both scheduled and emergency FOMC meetings. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi is 57.0% for this outcome. Resolution will be based on data from the Federal Reserve’s official monetary policy calendars and open market operations records, available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Traders should watch the December 15-16, 2026, Federal Open Market Committee meeting for potential signals regarding the Fed’s trajectory heading into the new year.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms define a rate hike as 25 basis points (or equivalent) and include emergency hikes in the count.Primary resolution logic: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Core resolution logic:

  • The number of rate hikes is determined by counting all increases of 25 basis points (or 1-24 bps) enacted by the FOMC during calendar year 2026.
  • Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings are included in the total count.
  • Resolution will be based on official FOMC statements and published federal funds rate data.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Partial Hike: A rate hike between 1 and 24 basis points will be counted as a single rate hike.
  • December Meeting: Rate hikes enacted during the December FOMC meeting will be included in the 2026 total.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the final FOMC meeting of 2026, no later than December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Kalshi

If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes. If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes. If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is at least 4, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the number of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes expected in 2026. Currently, there’s a consensus view forming around two hikes, as indicated by a combined volume of $709,228 across both platforms. The aggregated data provides a weighted average of trader sentiment, offering a forward-looking perspective beyond traditional analyst forecasts. This allows for a dynamic assessment of market expectations regarding monetary policy. The 24-hour volume is $42,613, showing active trading in the 2026 Fed rate hike market.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, incorporating diverse perspectives and rapidly adjusting to new information. While traditional analyst forecasts provide valuable insights, they can be subject to biases or slower updates. This market offers a continuously updated probability distribution, derived from actual monetary commitments by traders. Currently, the market’s implied probability differs from some mainstream forecasts, suggesting traders anticipate a slightly more hawkish stance from the Fed in 2026. The 2.0 percentage point difference highlights this divergence.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in user base, trading fees, and market-specific rules can lead to price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict. For example, Polymarket may attract more sophisticated traders with access to proprietary data, while Predict might have a broader, more retail-focused participation. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? at 55.0%, while Predict leans toward Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? at 57.0%. These variations are normal and contribute to the overall efficiency of the aggregated prediction.

This market resolves around Jan 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the actual number of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding changes to the federal funds rate throughout the calendar year. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how it aligns with their predictions after the resolution date. The final outcome will be determined by the number of times the FOMC raises the target range for the federal funds rate.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected inflation data, shifts in employment numbers, or major changes in global economic conditions could all prompt traders to reassess their expectations for Fed policy. Furthermore, statements from Fed officials, such as the Chair, regarding the future path of interest rates will be closely watched. Any surprise announcements or policy changes from the FOMC will likely cause a rapid shift in the odds within this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding price movements.