TOTAL VOLUME:

$131.1b

24H VOL:

$96,379,093

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,313,328,591

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,365,220,014

375,151

Markets across

30,628

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,807

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

40%

VS.

Kalshi:

60%

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PPI YoY - September 2026
kalshi
polymarket

What will PPI YoY be in September 2026?

Total volume:
$19,194
Volume 24h:
$2,038
2,677%
Liquidity:
$5,516
3%
Open interest:
$3,145
6%

Above 5.4%

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 22, 2026

Time left: 28d:09h:29m

Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for September 2026 be above 5.4%?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 28 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5.4%

Trade
95%
Yes 100¢No 77¢
77¢
N/A
$234
0%
0%
$234
4w 9h
active
polymarket

5.4%

Trade
4%
Yes 11.9¢No 99.7¢
11.6¢
$348
$639
3%
39%
N/A
3w 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
49.5%
Yes 56¢No 88.4¢
Avg: 44.3¢Max: 77¢
kalshi

Above 4.8%

Trade
93%
Yes 100¢No 18¢
18¢
N/A
$29
0%
0%
$29
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Above 4.7%

Trade
91%
Yes 100¢No 12¢
12¢
N/A
$398
0%
0%
$200
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Above 5.3%

Trade
83%
Yes 100¢No 21¢
21¢
N/A
$639
0%
0%
$606
4w 9h
active
polymarket

5.3%

Trade
4%
5%
Yes 7¢No 99¢
6¢
$563
$567
10%
22%
N/A
3w 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
43.5%
Yes 53.5¢No 60¢
Avg: 13.5¢Max: 21¢
kalshi

Above 4.9%

Trade
83%
Yes 100¢No 20¢
20¢
N/A
$57
0%
0%
$15
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Above 5.0%

Trade
82%
Yes 100¢No 21¢
21¢
N/A
$319
0%
0%
$179
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Above 5.2%

Trade
81%
Yes 100¢No 21¢
21¢
N/A
$35
0%
0%
$20
4w 9h
active
polymarket

5.2%

Trade
5%
Yes 9.3¢No 99.8¢
9.1¢
$468
$404
5%
5%
N/A
3w 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
43%
Yes 54.7¢No 60.4¢
Avg: 15.1¢Max: 21¢
kalshi

Above 5.5%

Trade
77%
Yes 87¢No 66¢
53¢
N/A
$410
0%
3%
$310
4w 9h
active
polymarket

5.5%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.8¢
0.7¢
$435
$598
3%
19%
N/A
3w 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
39%
Yes 44¢No 82.9¢
Avg: 26.9¢Max: 53¢
kalshi

Above 5.1%

Trade
77%
Yes 100¢No 21¢
21¢
N/A
$25
0%
0%
$15
4w 9h
active
polymarket

5.1%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$493
$443
5%
19%
N/A
3w 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
39%
Yes 50.5¢No 60.4¢
Avg: 10.9¢Max: 21¢
kalshi

Above 5.7%

Trade
73%
Yes 72¢No 58¢
30¢
N/A
$254
0%
2%
$137
4w 9h
active
polymarket

5.7%

Trade
19%
Yes 20¢No 82¢
2¢
$610
$785
3%
9%
N/A
3w 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
46%
Yes 46¢No 70¢
Avg: 16¢Max: 30¢
kalshi

Above 5.6%

Trade
55%
Yes 89¢No 64¢
53¢
N/A
$1,246
0%
29%
$597
4w 9h
active
polymarket

5.6%

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
$621
$558
4%
11%
N/A
3w 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
32.5%
Yes 49.5¢No 77.5¢
Avg: 27¢Max: 53¢
polymarket

5.9%+

Trade
44%
10%
Yes 45¢No 58¢
3¢
$613
$8,811
20%
29%
N/A
3w 23h
active
kalshi

Above 5.8%

Trade
36%
10%
Yes 42¢No 67¢
9¢
N/A
$1,180
24%
54%
$716
4w 9h
active
polymarket

5.8%

Trade
20%
Yes 21¢No 82¢
3¢
$879
$1,055
17%
35%
N/A
3w 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
28%
Yes 31.5¢No 74.5¢
Avg: 6¢Max: 9¢
kalshi

Above 5.9%

Trade
36%
Yes 28¢No 99¢
27¢
N/A
$86
0%
0%
$86
4w 9h
active
polymarket

≤5.0%

Trade
0%
Yes 25.3¢No 99.7¢
25¢
$485
$423
5%
20%
N/A
3w 23h
active
kalshi

Above 6.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Above 6.1%

Trade
N/A
N/A
16¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 9h
active
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

This event group forecasts the year-over-year percentage change in the United States Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in September 2026. The PPI is a key measure of wholesale price changes and a significant indicator of inflation. Markets are attempting to predict whether PPI growth will exceed various thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms diverge in their question framing (above vs. at or below a threshold) and present different sets of thresholds, creating a fragmented prediction landscape.Hero tip: Be mindful of the specific threshold and question framing when trading on each platform. A single PPI value will have different outcomes depending on the market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket asks if PPI YoY will be 5.0% or less (and similar questions for other thresholds). Resolution uses one decimal place precision. Resolves based on the BLS report released on October 15, 2026 (or a later date if the report is delayed).
  • Kalshi: Kalshi asks if PPI YoY will be *above* a series of thresholds (4.7%, 4.8%, etc.). Resolution is based on the BLS report for September 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on October 15, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

This set of markets resolves based on the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for the month of September 2026. Each market has a specific threshold, ranging from above 4.7% to above 6.2%. If the actual PPI change for that month exceeds any given threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same underlying data source and measurement methodology, focusing solely on the final demand component of the PPI. The resolution depends entirely on whether the reported figure surpasses the respective threshold for each individual market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year change for September 2026. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $19,194, with $2,038 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a unified view of predictions for the September 2026 PPI market, allowing traders to compare probabilities and volume across different venues. Polymarket currently favors Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? at 43.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for September 2026 be above 5.4%? at 95.0%.

Prediction market odds often reflect a different type of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of perspectives and potentially reacting more quickly to new information. It’s common to see discrepancies between the implied probability in this market and consensus analyst estimates, particularly as we move further out in time. These differences can be valuable signals for traders and investors seeking alternative viewpoints on future economic conditions.

Prices for the September 2026 PPI market can diverge between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. These platforms have different user bases, trading volumes, and liquidity, which can lead to varying price discovery processes. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Additionally, differing market-making strategies and risk appetites among traders on each platform can contribute to price discrepancies. The spread between the platforms is currently 51.5. These differences present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from price variations across venues.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official United States Producer Price Index for final demand released for September 2026 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders should monitor official government releases for the final data point that determines the outcome of this market. The data will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Key indicators like monthly inflation reports, employment data, and Federal Reserve policy announcements will be closely watched by traders. Unexpected shifts in energy prices, supply chain disruptions, or geopolitical events could also influence expectations for future PPI. Furthermore, revisions to previously released economic data can cause market adjustments. Any news that alters the perceived trajectory of inflation or economic growth has the potential to move this market substantially.