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375,151

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Bank of Mexico Decision in September?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket
kalshi

Bank of Mexico Decision in September?

Total volume:
$144,305
Volume 24h:
$10,386
26%
Liquidity:
$11,307
46%
Open interest:
$35,417
4%

Maintain current rate

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 24, 2026

Time left: 15h:12m:22s

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the September Governing Board meeting?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintain current rate

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$14,841
8%
55%
$10,286
15h 12m
active
polymarket

No change

Trade
97%
Yes 98.5¢No 3.7¢
2.2¢
$1,614
$35,066
13%
25%
N/A
20h 11m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
98%
Yes 98.8¢No 2.8¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 2.2¢
kalshi

Hike 50bps

Trade
6%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$7,302
0%
19%
$3,490
15h 12m
active
kalshi

Hike more than 50bps

Trade
5%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$7,833
0%
26%
$3,448
15h 12m
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$2,724
$5,258
2%
73%
N/A
20h 11m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2.5%
Yes 2.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Cut 50bps

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$14,048
0%
1%
$4,695
15h 12m
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
3%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$7,856
0%
13%
$4,893
15h 12m
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.8¢
0.7¢
$2,371
$16,370
8%
33%
N/A
20h 11m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 13¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 12.9¢Max: 25¢
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$7,635
1%
3%
$3,937
15h 12m
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.8¢No 99.6¢
3.4¢
$2,570
$11,114
38%
63%
N/A
20h 11m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2.5%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 3.7¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Cut more than 50bps

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$7,131
0%
0.22%
$4,667
15h 12m
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$2,028
$9,850
7%
165%
N/A
20h 11m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 2.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 4¢
Total markets: 12

Description

This group forecasts the Bank of Mexico's decision regarding interest rates at its September 2026 meeting. Markets ask whether the central bank will increase, decrease, or maintain the current rate, with some specifying the magnitude of the change.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge in how they define successful outcomes, particularly regarding the magnitude of rate changes and the granularity of the options available to traders.Hero tip: Consider the rounding rules on Polymarket. A small change in rates could be interpreted as a 25 bps move. On Kalshi, you need to predict the exact change (25bps, 50bps, etc.) for a successful outcome.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on basis point changes, rounded to the nearest 25 bps. Includes markets for increases, decreases, and no change. "If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines."
  • Kalshi: Offers separate markets for specific cut (25bps, 50bps, >50bps), hike (25bps, 50bps, >50bps), and maintain rate actions. Resolves to 'Yes' if the Bank of Mexico takes that specific action.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the Bank of Mexico at its September Governing Board meeting. Each market corresponds to a specific rate change scenario: cutting or hiking by 25bp, 50bp, or more than 50bp, or maintaining the current rate. Only changes to the primary policy rate count; markets resolve to 'No' if the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, with the 'No change' market resolving to 'Yes' in such cases. Emergency rate changes occurring outside scheduled meetings do not affect contract resolution. Basis point ranges are inclusive, meaning that a 50bp change, for example, satisfies both the '50bp' and 'more than 50bps' markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the Bank of Mexico decision. Currently, there’s a strong consensus view across both platforms, with a combined volume of $144,305 and 24-hour volume of $10,345. The market tracks the probability of different outcomes regarding the central bank’s interest rate policy following its September 2026 meeting. The current market sentiment suggests a high probability of no change, though traders on both venues are actively updating their forecasts as new economic data emerges. This provides a unique view into market expectations.

Prediction market odds often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, potentially offering a different signal than traditional analyst forecasts. While analyst predictions are based on models and individual expertise, this market incorporates the collective judgment of numerous traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or interpretations of economic indicators. It’s valuable to compare the implied probabilities from this market with those offered by financial institutions and economists to gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes surrounding the Bank of Mexico decision.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity levels, which can influence price discovery. Furthermore, differing market structures and fee schedules may attract different types of traders. Currently, Polymarket currently favors no change at 97.4%, while Kalshi leans toward maintaining the current rate at 99.0%. These variations are normal and reflect the independent price formation processes on each platform, offering traders opportunities for arbitrage.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement from the Bank of Mexico regarding its decision on interest rates following its September 2026 meeting. The outcome will reflect whether the Bank of Mexico changes its interest rate, maintains the current rate, or implements another policy action. Traders should monitor official communications from the central bank for updates leading up to the resolution date.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in Mexican inflation data, changes in the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, or significant geopolitical events could all influence trader sentiment. Strong economic growth or contraction in Mexico, coupled with fluctuations in the Mexican Peso exchange rate, are also likely catalysts. Furthermore, statements from Bank of Mexico officials regarding future policy intentions could move the market. Traders should closely monitor these indicators and adjust their positions accordingly as the resolution date approaches.