TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 5, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on June 5, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on June 5, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time aggregated trader sentiment, which often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts. While Wall Street energy analysts typically issue price targets based on supply-demand models and geopolitical risk assessments, prediction markets incorporate broader market expectations and can react faster to breaking news. Comparing Polymarket implied probabilities to consensus analyst views reveals whether traders are pricing in more bullish or bearish scenarios than the research community. This gap can highlight where market participants see asymmetric risk relative to published forecasts.
On Polymarket, the WTI Crude Oil Up or Down on June 5 contract is priced as a binary outcome: traders buy or sell shares representing either an up or down close. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective probability estimate of market participants, with higher prices indicating stronger conviction that outcome will occur. Liquidity and trading volume on Polymarket determine how efficiently prices adjust to new information about crude inventories, OPEC production decisions, and broader energy market trends through the resolution date.
The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026, marking the end of trading and settlement. Resolution is determined by WTI's closing price on June 5, comparing it to the reference level established at market creation. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout based on the final price action. The exact settlement price source and timing are specified in the market's terms, ensuring objective and verifiable resolution independent of trader disputes or interpretation.
Key catalysts include weekly crude inventory reports from the EIA, OPEC production announcements, geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, and macroeconomic data influencing demand expectations. Dollar strength typically pressures oil prices, while recession fears or growth surprises reshape energy consumption forecasts. Unexpected refinery outages, hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico, and central bank policy signals can also trigger sharp moves. Traders monitor these factors continuously, repricing the market as new information arrives and adjusting their directional bets ahead of June 5 resolution.