TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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September Unemployment Rate
kalshi
polymarket

What will the September unemployment rate be?

Total volume:
$39,432
Volume 24h:
$1,557
44%
Liquidity:
$21,470
5%
Open interest:
$22,631
2%

Above 3.7%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.7% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 2, 2026

Time left: 22d:04h:55m

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in September?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 22 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.7%

Trade
96%
1%
Yes 100¢No 9¢
9¢
N/A
$810
2%
148%
$408
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 3.8%

Trade
93%
Yes 100¢No 9¢
9¢
N/A
$2,381
0%
152%
$1,165
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 3.9%

Trade
89%
Yes 95¢No 11¢
6¢
N/A
$2,083
0.53%
171%
$1,272
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 4.0%

Trade
81%
1%
Yes 85¢No 22¢
7¢
N/A
$5,976
1%
28%
$3,431
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 4.1%

Trade
47%
1%
Yes 48¢No 57¢
5¢
N/A
$2,624
5%
94%
$1,629
3w 1d 4h
active
polymarket

4.2%

Trade
34%
4%
Yes 35¢No 68¢
3¢
$2,086
$409
324%
N/A
N/A
3w 23h
active
polymarket

4.1%

Trade
32%
1%
Yes 33¢No 69¢
2¢
$2,205
$1,309
9%
N/A
N/A
3w 23h
active
polymarket

4.0%

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 21¢No 83¢
4¢
$2,360
$86
19%
N/A
N/A
3w 23h
active
kalshi

Above 4.2%

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 15¢No 87¢
2¢
N/A
$12,202
6%
41%
$8,226
3w 1d 4h
active
polymarket

4.3%

Trade
10%
Yes 11¢No 91¢
2¢
$2,614
$87
19%
N/A
N/A
3w 23h
active
kalshi

Above 4.9%

Trade
8%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 4.4%

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 99¢
5¢
N/A
$5,365
0%
0.59%
$3,567
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 4.8%

Trade
6%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$101
0%
0%
$101
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 4.3%

Trade
5%
Yes 8¢No 95¢
3¢
N/A
$3,056
3%
97%
$2,352
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 4.5%

Trade
5%
Yes 7¢No 100¢
7¢
N/A
$605
0%
71%
$336
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 5.0%

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$111
0%
0%
$111
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 4.6%

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$11
0%
10%
$11
3w 1d 4h
active
polymarket

3.9%

Trade
5%
Yes 7¢No 98¢
5¢
$2,406
$141
11%
N/A
N/A
3w 23h
active
polymarket

≤3.8%

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 6.1¢No 97.8¢
3.9¢
$2,931
$798
2%
N/A
N/A
3w 23h
active
polymarket

4.4%

Trade
4%
Yes 6¢No 98¢
4¢
$2,849
$199
8%
N/A
N/A
3w 23h
active
polymarket

4.5%

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 6.5¢No 99.7¢
6.2¢
$1,666
$529
3%
N/A
N/A
3w 23h
active
kalshi

Above 4.7%

Trade
3%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$20
0%
0%
$20
3w 1d 4h
active
polymarket

≥4.6%

Trade
3%
Yes 4.3¢No 98.9¢
3.2¢
$2,355
$528
3%
N/A
N/A
3w 23h
active
Total markets: 23

Description

This group forecasts the September 2026 US unemployment rate, as measured by the U-3 statistic reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The markets ask various questions about whether the rate will fall above or below specific thresholds, or equal to a specific value.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket asks if the rate will be less than or equal to a value, while Kalshi asks if it will be greater than a value. This requires careful consideration when comparing probabilities.Hero tip: Be mindful of the inverse relationship between Polymarket's and Kalshi's questions. A high probability on a Polymarket '≤' market implies a low probability on a corresponding Kalshi 'above' market, and vice versa.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Asks whether the unemployment rate will be less than or equal to a specific value (e.g., ≤3.8%). Resolves based on the BLS U-3 unemployment rate for September 2026.
  • Kalshi: Offers a series of markets resolving 'Yes' if the unemployment rate is *above* a series of thresholds (e.g., >3.7%, >3.8%). Resolves based on the BLS U-3 unemployment rate for September 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026. The event employs a tiered threshold structure with eleven distinct levels ranging from 3.7% to 5.0%. Each threshold represents a separate resolution point; if the reported rate exceeds any given threshold, that market resolves to Yes. The actual reported rate determines which thresholds are exceeded and thus which markets resolve affirmatively.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the September unemployment rate market. It aggregates trading activity from both platforms, displaying combined volume of $39,432 and 24-hour volume of $1,557. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? at 33.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in September? at 96.0%. This allows traders to see where the smart money is flowing and compare predictions across different exchanges, providing a comprehensive overview of expectations for the upcoming jobs report.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and surveys, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who have skin in the game. These traders are incentivized to accurately predict the September unemployment rate, leading to potentially more accurate forecasts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s valuable to consider both prediction market probabilities and expert opinions when forming your own view on the economic outlook.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to several factors. Trading volume can vary significantly between the platforms, influencing price discovery. Different user bases and risk appetites can also contribute to discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, each platform has its own fee structure and liquidity provisions, which can impact trading behavior. These factors create independent price signals, even for the same underlying event, making it possible to find arbitrage opportunities or differing perspectives on the likely outcome for the September unemployment rate.

This market resolves around Oct 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official unemployment rate for September, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), will determine the result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how it aligns with their predictions. The resolution will be based on the U-3 unemployment rate, a standard measure of joblessness in the United States, ensuring a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several key signals could influence trading activity in this market. Preliminary economic data releases, such as the August jobs report and weekly jobless claims, will provide early indicators of labor market conditions. Any unexpected announcements regarding monetary policy from the Federal Reserve could also have a significant impact. Geopolitical events or unforeseen economic shocks could introduce volatility and shift trader sentiment. Ultimately, any information that alters expectations about the September unemployment rate has the potential to move this market before Oct 2, 2026.