This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on June 15, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on June 15, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the WTI crude oil price movement market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price data for whether WTI crude will close higher or lower on June 15. The interface displays the current probability assigned by traders to each outcome, along with 24-hour volume metrics that reflect recent trading activity. This market aggregates the collective forecast of participants betting on the direction of one of the world's most widely followed energy benchmarks, giving you a live snapshot of market sentiment around near-term oil price movement.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous price discovery rather than periodic published reports. While energy analysts may issue quarterly or monthly outlooks based on geopolitical risk, inventory data, and demand trends, this market updates moment-to-moment as new information emerges. Traders who accurately predict WTI's directional move profit directly, creating a self-correcting mechanism. Comparing the implied probability here to consensus forecasts from major investment banks or energy consultancies can reveal where the market sees asymmetric risk that analysts may have underweighted.

On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome—WTI up or down—and the price of each share reflects its probability of occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market uses an automated market maker (AMM) model, meaning prices adjust continuously based on order flow and liquidity. When more traders buy "up" shares, their price rises and the implied probability of a price increase climbs; the inverse happens for "down" shares. This mechanism ensures the market remains liquid and responsive to breaking news, economic data, or geopolitical developments affecting crude oil.

This market resolves around Jun 15, 2026, after the close of trading on June 15. The outcome is determined by whether WTI crude oil settles higher or lower than its opening price on that date, verified against credible public sources such as official exchange data or major financial news providers. Once the event is confirmed and the result is clear, the market locks in and winning shares are redeemed at full value while losing shares expire worthless. The resolution process typically completes within hours of the market close.

Major catalysts for WTI price movement include OPEC production announcements, US inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, and macroeconomic data affecting demand forecasts. Unexpected supply disruptions, refinery outages, or shifts in global growth expectations can trigger sharp repricing. Currency fluctuations, particularly US dollar strength, also influence crude valuations. Traders monitor these signals closely and adjust positions accordingly, so any headline touching energy supply, demand, or risk sentiment could shift odds materially before the June 15 close.

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