TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 10, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on June 10, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on June 10, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader positioning and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on fundamental models and historical patterns. While energy analysts may publish price targets based on supply, demand, geopolitical risk, and inventory data, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment from active traders. Comparing Polymarket odds to consensus analyst views reveals whether markets are pricing in more bullish or bearish outcomes than expert consensus. This divergence often highlights where traders see asymmetric risk or where new information has not yet been fully reflected in traditional forecasts.
On Polymarket, WTI Crude Oil Up or Down is priced as a binary contract where traders buy or sell shares representing each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective probability assigned by market participants, ranging from 0 to 100 cents per share. Traders profit by correctly predicting whether WTI closes higher or lower on June 10. Liquidity and volume on Polymarket determine how easily traders can enter or exit positions, and prices update continuously as new trades execute. The spread between bid and ask prices reflects market depth and participant conviction around the directional move.
The market resolves at Jun 10, 2026. Resolution is determined by comparing WTI's closing price on June 10 to its opening price or prior close, depending on the exact contract specification. Winning traders are those who correctly predicted the direction of movement. The outcome is typically verified using official WTI price data from recognized financial data providers. Once the reference price is confirmed and the market settles, traders receive payouts based on their position and the final outcome.
Key catalysts for WTI movement include OPEC production decisions, US crude inventory reports, geopolitical tensions affecting supply, and macroeconomic data signaling demand strength. Dollar weakness typically supports crude prices, while recession fears or demand destruction can pressure them lower. Energy sector earnings, refinery maintenance schedules, and hurricane forecasts affecting Gulf of Mexico production are also material. Global growth expectations, inflation data, and central bank policy shifts influence risk appetite and commodity demand. Traders monitoring these signals adjust positions on Polymarket as new information emerges, driving odds shifts ahead of the June 10 close.