This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on July 8, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on July 8, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the WTI crude oil price movement market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price data for whether West Texas Intermediate crude will close higher or lower on July 8. The interface displays current implied probabilities for each outcome, allowing traders to monitor sentiment shifts as market conditions evolve. You can view cumulative trading volume and recent transaction activity to gauge liquidity and trader conviction. This market captures intraday volatility and macroeconomic positioning around energy prices, making it a useful barometer for oil market expectations on that specific date.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and live market sentiment rather than static research reports. Traders in this market incorporate breaking news, geopolitical developments, and supply-demand shifts faster than consensus estimates update. While analysts may publish directional views on crude oil trends, the odds here aggregate distributed knowledge from thousands of participants betting their capital. Comparing the implied probability to major bank energy outlooks or EIA reports can reveal whether the crowd is pricing in more bullish or bearish scenarios than the consensus view.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on order flow and liquidity depth. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—up or down—has a price between 0 and 1 cent, where higher prices reflect stronger perceived likelihood. Buying a contract at a lower price and selling at a higher price locks in profit if your directional view proves correct. The continuous pricing mechanism ensures this market remains responsive to new information about crude fundamentals, geopolitical risk, and macroeconomic data through the resolution date.

This market resolves around Jul 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result hinges on whether WTI crude closes above or below its opening level on July 8, based on widely available market data. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout once the close is finalized and the market is settled. The binary structure—up or down—makes resolution straightforward and removes ambiguity about which side prevails.

Major catalysts include OPEC production announcements, US inventory reports, geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, and macroeconomic data on inflation and interest rates. Unexpected refinery outages or weather disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico can trigger sharp repricing. Central bank policy shifts and currency movements also influence crude demand and pricing. Energy stocks and broader equity market moves often correlate with oil sentiment, so stock market volatility on July 8 itself could sway last-minute trading. Traders monitor these signals continuously to adjust positions ahead of the close.

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