This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on July 6, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on July 6, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the WTI crude oil price movement market dashboard tracks real-time odds on whether WTI crude oil will close higher or lower on July 6. The interface displays the current probability for each outcome, allowing traders to monitor how market sentiment shifts as new information emerges. You can view historical price movements, recent trading activity, and the aggregate positions of all participants in this market. The dashboard updates continuously, reflecting the collective forecast of traders betting on energy commodity movements. This live data helps participants assess consensus expectations around intraday oil price direction.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-time, incentivized bets rather than point estimates. Traders in this market are financially motivated to price in all available information—geopolitical developments, inventory reports, and macroeconomic signals—instantly. Analyst reports typically lag market moves and may carry institutional biases. By comparing the odds here to published forecasts from energy analysts and commodity strategists, you can gauge whether the market is pricing in risks that mainstream research has overlooked or downplayed. This comparison reveals where consensus may be underweighting tail risks or overconfident in near-term direction.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker (AMM) mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The cost of each share adjusts dynamically based on the ratio of capital allocated to "Up" versus "Down" outcomes. As more traders bet on one direction, the price of that outcome rises and the opposing outcome falls, naturally balancing supply and demand. This continuous pricing model ensures liquidity and allows participants to enter or exit positions at transparent, real-time rates. The spread between bid and ask prices reflects current market depth and volatility.

This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the trading window closes and the outcome is confirmed. The result is determined by verifying the actual WTI crude oil closing price on July 6 against credible public sources, such as official exchange data or widely recognized commodity reporting services. Traders who correctly predicted the direction of price movement—whether it finished higher or lower than the previous close—receive their winnings. Resolution is typically finalized within hours of market close, allowing participants to see results and settle positions promptly.

Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before July 6. Unexpected geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, supply disruptions, or OPEC+ production announcements can trigger sharp directional moves. U.S. crude inventory reports, refinery utilization data, and broader energy demand signals also influence trader positioning. Macroeconomic news—inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, or currency fluctuations—affects risk appetite and commodity prices. Weather events impacting production or transportation, along with real-time trading flows and technical levels, can accelerate momentum in either direction. Traders monitor these signals continuously to adjust their bets as new information emerges.

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 6?

OPEC+ Likely to Stick With Plan for Steady Quotas, Delegates Say

Gold Fields Said to Weigh Sweetening Northern Star Bid With Cash

Barrick CEO Flags Potential Delay for North America Gold IPO

Executives Attend Sold-Out Oil and Gas Conference in Venezuela

Baytex Energy, Saturn Oil on Fueling Canada’s Energy Growth

Russia’s Oil Export Windfall Eroded by Ban on Diesel Shipments

Bitcoin surging to $100,000 may be in play, after outperforming gold

Cash Gold Market Booms in India as High Prices and Taxes Bite

Burkina Faso's junta leader opens major gold refinery to keep mining profits at home

Lufthansa Predicts Challenging Year With Oil, Fleet Issues

Markets

Details