TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.9b

24H VOL:

$163,854,306

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,185,829,855

506,570

Markets across

13,801

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,985

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA
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kalshi
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Trending

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 9?

Volume:
$1,138,476
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 9, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official daily close price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.WTIK6%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (whether WTI closes above specific dollar amounts), while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (whether April 9 close is higher or lower than the prior trading day's close). These two approaches will produce opposite outcomes in many realistic scenarios.

Hero Tip:

Do not assume the same bet resolves identically across platforms. On Kalshi, you are betting on absolute price levels; on Polymarket, you are betting on directional change relative to the previous day. If WTI closes at $95.50 on April 8 and $96.50 on April 9, Polymarket resolves UP (higher than prior day), but Kalshi resolves NO (below all thresholds starting at $95.99). Verify your platform choice before committing capital.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on April 9, 2026 exceeds any of 35 absolute price thresholds ranging from $85.99 to $119.99 (e.g., 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 09, 2026 is above $95.99, then the market resolves to Yes'). Resolves NO if price is at or below all thresholds. This is a pure absolute-price-level market with no reference to prior-day movement.
  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP if the April 9, 2026 close price for the Active Month WTI futures contract is higher than the close price on the most recent prior trading day, and DOWN if lower (e.g., 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day'). This is a pure relative-movement market with no absolute price thresholds.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.