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$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 8?
polymarket
kalshi

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 8?

Volume:
$1,503,741

$94 or above

 - Kalshi

$94 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 8, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$94 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$94,760
N/A
N/A
$30,219
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$93 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$72,056
N/A
N/A
$49,924
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$92 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$48,870
N/A
N/A
$28,617
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$87 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,601
N/A
N/A
$34,479
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$91 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,608
N/A
N/A
$23,961
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$88 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$26,069
N/A
N/A
$24,095
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$90 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,066
N/A
N/A
$9,530
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$85 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,502
N/A
N/A
$5,442
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$89 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,023
N/A
N/A
$2,063
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$86 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
$427
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$95 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$232,137
N/A
N/A
$60,319
Settled
No
kalshi

$96 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131,944
N/A
N/A
$65,514
Settled
No
kalshi

$97 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$122,601
N/A
N/A
$50,452
Settled
No
kalshi

$98 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79,664
N/A
N/A
$49,477
Settled
No
kalshi

$105 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,836
N/A
N/A
$17,545
Settled
No
kalshi

$100 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,942
N/A
N/A
$22,909
Settled
No
kalshi

$119 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,482
N/A
N/A
$21,703
Settled
No
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 8?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$112 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,412
N/A
N/A
$14,250
Settled
No
kalshi

$110 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,542
N/A
N/A
$15,102
Settled
No
kalshi

$116 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,843
N/A
N/A
$17,160
Settled
No
kalshi

$115 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,593
N/A
N/A
$16,606
Settled
No
kalshi

$109 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,471
N/A
N/A
$11,788
Settled
No
kalshi

$99 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,459
N/A
N/A
$21,776
Settled
No
kalshi

$113 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,580
N/A
N/A
$9,025
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 36

Description

These markets assess WTI Crude Oil price movement on April 8, 2026. Kalshi offers multiple binary contracts tied to specific price thresholds (ranging from $104.99 to $118.99 per barrel), while Polymarket resolves based on whether the closing price on April 8 is higher or lower than the prior trading day's close. The core difference: Kalshi measures absolute price levels; Polymarket measures relative day-over-day direction.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution logics and measurement approaches. Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day price direction (Up/Down/Flat) using Pyth closing prices, while Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (16 separate price-level markets, each resolving Yes if the settle price exceeds a specific dollar amount). These are incompatible measurement frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same underlying asset on the same date.Hero tip: If you trade this event group, understand that Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring different things: Polymarket tells you if price moved up or down from the prior day, while Kalshi tells you if price exceeded specific dollar levels. A YES resolution on one platform does not guarantee YES on the other. For example, if WTI closes at $105.50 on April 8 after closing at $105.00 on April 7, Polymarket resolves UP (directional gain), but Kalshi's $104.99 market resolves YES while its $106.99 market resolves NO (absolute thresholds). Arbitrage or hedge accordingly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day directional price movement (Up, Down, or 50-50 if flat or no trade). The market compares the Close price for the Active Month WTI futures on April 8, 2026 against the Close price on the most recent prior trading day using Pyth 1-minute candle closes at 4:59 PM ET. Resolution is directional only: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 8, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds across 16 separate binary markets, each asking whether the front-month settle price exceeds a specific dollar level ($84.99 through $118.99). Each market independently resolves Yes if the settle price is above its threshold, or No if at or below. This is a price-level measurement framework, not directional: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 08, 2026 is above $104.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.