TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 8?
Volume:
$1,503,741
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets assess WTI Crude Oil price movement on April 8, 2026. Kalshi offers multiple binary contracts tied to specific price thresholds (ranging from $104.99 to $118.99 per barrel), while Polymarket resolves based on whether the closing price on April 8 is higher or lower than the prior trading day's close. The core difference: Kalshi measures absolute price levels; Polymarket measures relative day-over-day direction.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution logics and measurement approaches. Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day price direction (Up/Down/Flat) using Pyth closing prices, while Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (16 separate price-level markets, each resolving Yes if the settle price exceeds a specific dollar amount). These are incompatible measurement frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same underlying asset on the same date.Hero Tip:
If you trade this event group, understand that Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring different things: Polymarket tells you if price moved up or down from the prior day, while Kalshi tells you if price exceeded specific dollar levels. A YES resolution on one platform does not guarantee YES on the other. For example, if WTI closes at $105.50 on April 8 after closing at $105.00 on April 7, Polymarket resolves UP (directional gain), but Kalshi's $104.99 market resolves YES while its $106.99 market resolves NO (absolute thresholds). Arbitrage or hedge accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day directional price movement (Up, Down, or 50-50 if flat or no trade). The market compares the Close price for the Active Month WTI futures on April 8, 2026 against the Close price on the most recent prior trading day using Pyth 1-minute candle closes at 4:59 PM ET. Resolution is directional only: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 8, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds across 16 separate binary markets, each asking whether the front-month settle price exceeds a specific dollar level ($84.99 through $118.99). Each market independently resolves Yes if the settle price is above its threshold, or No if at or below. This is a price-level measurement framework, not directional: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 08, 2026 is above $104.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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