TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 15?
polymarket
kalshi

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 15?

Volume:
$724,153

$91 or above

 - Kalshi

$91 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 15, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$91 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$99,862
N/A
N/A
$40,812
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$90 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$63,999
N/A
N/A
$31,956
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$89 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$38,115
N/A
N/A
$22,542
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$88 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,620
N/A
N/A
$11,504
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$87 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,112
N/A
N/A
$5,540
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$85 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,776
N/A
N/A
$4,107
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$86 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,462
N/A
N/A
$2,743
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$84 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,052
N/A
N/A
$2,498
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$83 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,616
N/A
N/A
$992
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$82 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$796
N/A
N/A
$744
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$92 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$159,818
N/A
N/A
$50,329
Settled
No
kalshi

$93 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132,620
N/A
N/A
$48,547
Settled
No
kalshi

$94 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,703
N/A
N/A
$21,634
Settled
No
kalshi

$96 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,528
N/A
N/A
$16,436
Settled
No
kalshi

$95 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,359
N/A
N/A
$12,788
Settled
No
kalshi

$97 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,555
N/A
N/A
$14,267
Settled
No
kalshi

$98 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,748
N/A
N/A
$8,844
Settled
No
kalshi

$99 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,741
N/A
N/A
$5,328
Settled
No
polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 15?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$100 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,808
N/A
N/A
$5,022
Settled
No
kalshi

$102 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,468
N/A
N/A
$1,889
Settled
No
kalshi

$103 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,992
N/A
N/A
$1,815
Settled
No
kalshi

$106 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,991
N/A
N/A
$1,935
Settled
No
kalshi

$101 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,864
N/A
N/A
$2,231
Settled
No
kalshi

$105 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,455
N/A
N/A
$1,323
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 15, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 15, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official daily close price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket resolves on day-over-day price direction (Up/Down/50-50) using Pyth Close values, while Kalshi resolves on absolute price thresholds ($81.99–$105.99) using front-month settle prices. These are fundamentally different settlement value types and cannot be directly reconciled.Hero tip: If you trade both platforms, note that Polymarket's outcome (Up or Down) does not predict Kalshi's outcome (Yes or No at specific price levels). A Polymarket 'Up' result tells you the price moved higher than the prior day, but does not tell you whether the absolute settle price on April 15 will exceed any of Kalshi's thresholds. Conversely, Kalshi's Yes/No at a given threshold tells you the absolute price but not the direction relative to April 14. Treat these as independent bets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: resolves on day-over-day price direction (Up if April 15 Close > April 14 Close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no trade). Uses Pyth Close value at 4:59 PM ET for the Active Month WTI futures contract, with fallback to CME official close if Pyth data is unavailable. 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on April 15, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: resolves on absolute front-month settle price thresholds on April 15, 2026. Each of 25 binary markets resolves Yes if the settle price exceeds a specific level ($81.99, $82.99, ..., $105.99), and No otherwise. 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 15, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.