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Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
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Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Volume:
$218,035

Crowley wins

 - Polymarket

Crowley wins - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 26, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 3:08 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Crowley wins

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.8¢
N/A
$19,209
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Hong 30%+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$80,404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hong 25–30%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,716
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hong 5–10%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,881
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hong <5%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,890
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hong 10–15%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hong 20–25%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,559
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hong 15–20%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,911
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Barnes wins

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,903
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the Wisconsin Governor primary margin market, alongside 24-hour volume of $57. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the potential margin of victory in the Democratic primary race, reflecting shifts in expectations as new polling data, candidate announcements, or campaign developments emerge. The dashboard updates continuously to display the latest market sentiment and trading activity specific to this event.

While polls provide snapshots of voter intent, this market incorporates broader factors like campaign momentum, fundraising updates, and strategic dynamics. Traders may price in shifts that polls have not yet captured, especially in the weeks leading up to the primary. The gap between this market’s implied probability and polling averages can signal where market participants see value or risk that pollsters might overlook.

This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin of victory will be calculated from official election results, and this market will settle based on that verified data. Timing is tied strictly to when authoritative sources publish the final, certified results post-election.