TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 35%
- Kalshi
At least 35% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 26, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 26, 12:34 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks how much support David Crowley garners in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. It focuses on whether his vote share reaches various thresholds, reflecting his electoral performance against other candidates. The outcome depends solely on the officially certified results.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the certified percentage of the popular vote David Crowley receives in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. For any given market, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if Crowley's vote share falls within the specified range (e.g., 20% to 100%, 25% to 100%, etc.), inclusive of both endpoints. The percentage is calculated by dividing Crowley's total valid votes by the total number of valid votes cast, multiplying by 100, and rounding to the specified decimal places. Only certified or official results are considered; preliminary results, write-in votes (if certified), and invalid/spoiled ballots are excluded from calculations. If the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by the expiration date, the market resolves to 'No'. Additionally, if a recount alters the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified figure determines the outcome. Multiple voting rounds, such as ranked-choice voting, use the specified round or the first round if unspecified.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects trader expectations that may differ from public polling averages. While polls provide snapshots of voter intent, prediction market odds incorporate betting behavior, liquidity, and trader insights, sometimes showing a more nuanced view of candidate performance. Comparisons can highlight where market participants diverge from traditional survey results.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set prices through buying and selling contracts that represent different vote percentage ranges for David Crowley. The current implied chance reflects the balance of these trades, with market depth and volume influencing price discovery. Traders’ assessments of news, candidate momentum, and demographic factors shape the pricing dynamics.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final vote percentage reported by authoritative election authorities will determine which contract — representing David Crowley’s actual vote share — settles in the market.
