TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Darijana Filipovic
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 2, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will Darijana Filipovic win the 2026 election for the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
$
Description
This group of markets asks who will be elected as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 2026 general election. The Presidency is a collective head of state with members representing the Bosniak, Croat, and Serb ethnic groups. These markets aim to predict the outcome of the Croat member election.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms utilize the same core resolution criteria: the officially elected Croat member of the Presidency following the 2026 election.Primary resolution logic: Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the official results from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- The elected individual must be formally appointed as the Croat member of the Presidency.
- Interim, temporary, or caretaker appointments do not qualify for resolution.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No Election by Deadline: If no Croat member of the Presidency is elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets will resolve to 'Other'.
- Disputed Results: In the event of disputed election results, the primary resolution source (izbori.ba) will be given precedence. If the situation remains unresolved, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Polymarket
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
This event comprises three markets centered on the 2026 election for the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each market resolves to Yes if the specified candidate—Darijana Filipovic, Zdenko Lucic, or Slaven Kovacevic—emerges victorious in the election. Consistent with the Serb member markets, these are eligible for accelerated resolution via a consensus of media calls identifying a winner prior to formal election certification.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional polling averages. Polls can be susceptible to biases, such as sampling errors or respondents not accurately reflecting their true preferences. This market incorporates a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, where the collective predictions of many traders can distill information and overcome individual biases. While polls offer a snapshot in time, this market continuously updates based on new information and changing sentiment. The difference between market probabilities and polling data can sometimes be significant, offering a potentially more insightful view of the election outcome.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading limits, and fee structure, which can influence price discovery. Differences in liquidity – the amount of volume traded – can also lead to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the platforms may attract different types of traders with varying levels of expertise and information. It's also possible that differing interpretations of available information or news events contribute to the observed price differences. These variations are normal and reflect the independent price discovery process on each platform.
This market resolves around Jan 2, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the relevant electoral authorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding the election of the Croat member of the Presidency. The outcome will reflect the candidate who receives the most votes in that election. The market’s resolution process relies on publicly available and independently verifiable information to ensure a fair and accurate determination of the winner, without relying on any specific internal source.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential political figures, shifts in public opinion revealed through updated polling data, and significant campaign events could all cause price fluctuations. Unexpected political alliances or controversies involving candidates would also likely move the market. Any developments related to the electoral process itself, such as changes to voting regulations or challenges to candidate eligibility, could also have a substantial effect. Furthermore, geopolitical events or international involvement in Bosnia and Herzegovina could introduce new variables and influence trader sentiment in this market.