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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket
kalshi

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?

Total volume:
$87,596
Volume 24h:
$7,523
52%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$12,672
0%

At least 1%

 - Kalshi

At least 1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

Time left: 01d:13h:57m

Will BSW receive at least 1% of valid second votes in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 1%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$6,040
0%
0%
$5,400
1d 13h 57m
active
kalshi

At least 4%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$4,896
0%
2%
$2,272
1d 13h 57m
active
kalshi

At least 3%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 3¢
3¢
N/A
$3,871
0%
0%
$2,421
1d 13h 57m
active
kalshi

At least 2%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 3¢
3¢
N/A
$656
0%
0%
$528
1d 13h 57m
active
kalshi

At least 5%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$2,227
0%
9%
$901
1d 13h 57m
active
kalshi

At least 7%

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$913
0%
30%
$913
1d 13h 57m
active
kalshi

At least 6%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$237
0%
N/A
$237
1d 13h 57m
active
polymarket

3-5%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.8¢
N/A
$19,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5-7%

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,409
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7%+

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This group forecasts the vote share that the BSW (Bundestag Social Welfare) party will achieve in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election. Resolution will be based on the official percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the BSW, as reported by the State Returning Officer.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket presents mutually exclusive ranges, while Kalshi offers separate 'at least X%' questions, creating a divergence in how outcomes are evaluated.Hero tip: Consider the implications of the different market structures. Kalshi allows for multiple 'Yes' outcomes if BSW exceeds several thresholds, whereas Polymarket only resolves to one range.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on exclusive ranges (less than 3%, 3-5%, 5-7%, at least 7%). If results are unavailable by December 31, 2026, it resolves to the lowest range bracket. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Each market resolves to 'Yes' if BSW receives at least a specified percentage of the vote (2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%). "If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by BSW in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election is X% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by BSW in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election, with multiple markets covering different minimum thresholds from 1% to 7%. The percentage is calculated as (second votes received by BSW ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Only valid votes are counted; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. Certified or official results must be used unless specific provisions for Fully-Conducted Elections or Accelerated Resolution apply, in which case unofficial results or media declarations may be considered under those conditions. If the election is cancelled, suspended, postponed before conclusion, or if no results are available from source agencies by expiration, the event resolves No. If a recount alters the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used to determine the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official vote share received by the BSW party in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election, as reported by the relevant electoral authorities. The final price of this market will reflect the accuracy of the collective predictions made by traders on Polymarket and Kalshi leading up to the election. The total volume traded is currently $87,596.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments, such as shifts in party leadership, significant policy announcements, or unexpected endorsements, could all influence trader sentiment. Changes in polling data, particularly if they show a substantial change in support for the BSW, would likely cause price movements. Additionally, media coverage and public debate surrounding key election issues could also play a role. A large trading volume spike on either Polymarket or Kalshi could also indicate a shift in market expectations and move the price.