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AfD, ≥15%
- Kalshi
AfD, ≥15% - Kalshi
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Resolves Nov 20, 2026
Latest in Elections
Will the margin of victory for AfD in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election be at least 15%?
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Description
This group forecasts the outcome of the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, specifically focusing on the margin of victory for the leading parties (AfD and SPD) and the possibility of another party winning. The markets aim to predict the vote share difference between the top two parties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The platforms diverge in their margin of victory thresholds and outcome definitions, with Polymarket offering more granular brackets and a fallback for non-AfD/SPD wins, while Kalshi focuses exclusively on AfD's margin.Hero tip: Consider the differing thresholds when trading. Polymarket's broader range of outcomes may provide more opportunities, while Kalshi's focus on AfD simplifies the prediction.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on specific margin brackets (0-2%, 2-5%, etc.) and includes an 'Another party wins' outcome if AfD or SPD don't win. Tie-breaking is alphabetical. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket."
- Kalshi: Resolves based on whether AfD's margin of victory is at or above specific percentage thresholds (3%, 6%, 9%, etc.). "If the margin of victory for AfD in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the margin of victory for the AfD in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, measured by the difference between AfD’s share of valid statewide second votes and the share of the next-highest party if AfD finishes first, or the first-place party’s share if AfD loses. The margin is positive for a win, negative for a loss, and zero for a tie for first, with no rounding applied. Each market has a specific threshold (3%, 6%, 9%, 12%, or 15%) that the margin must meet or exceed for a 'Yes' resolution. An exact tie for first that remains unresolved by expiration receives a proportional payout for ranges containing zero, while other ranges resolve 'No'. Certified results, the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, and accelerated resolution apply as specified in the full rules.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Nov 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin of victory in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election, as reported by official election authorities, will determine the outcome. Trading will cease once a clear result is declared, and the market will settle accordingly. This ensures that the market accurately reflects the real-world outcome of the election, providing a transparent and verifiable result for all participants.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major political developments, such as shifts in party leadership, significant policy announcements, or unexpected endorsements, could all influence trader sentiment. Changes in polling data, particularly if they indicate a substantial shift in voter preferences, would likely cause price movements. Additionally, any unforeseen events that affect the political landscape, such as economic shocks or major scandals, could also drive trading activity and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.