TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Francesca Hong
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Francesca Hong - Kalshi
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Resolved Aug 26, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 26, 12:31 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks who finishes in second place during the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary election. The outcome depends on the official certified results from the state's electoral authority. Various voting systems and tie-breaking procedures may influence the final ranking of candidates.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes for the specified candidate if they finish in second place in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary according to certified results. Ranking determination varies by voting system: plurality uses vote count or percentage, ranked choice uses elimination order with the runner-up determined in the final round, two-round systems use final round results if applicable otherwise first-round totals, and proportional representation follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. In case of exact ties, resolution is proportional (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific Write-in or Other option exists. Candidates withdrawing or being disqualified after the filing deadline but remaining on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a different perspective. Analysts may weigh factors like polling trends and campaign resources, while traders focus on betting dynamics and recent momentum shifts. Sometimes this market prices a tighter race or a surprise contender, especially if new events shift voter sentiment. Tracking both sources together can reveal where public betting diverges from expert opinion.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the odds through continuous bidding, with prices adjusting based on buying and selling activity. The current implied chance for each outcome reflects the collective assessment of participants, influenced by recent polls, news coverage, and campaign developments. Volume of $0 in the last 24 hours shows how actively this market is being traded.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official primary results are verified against credible public sources. The second-place finisher will be determined by the final vote tallies, and the market will close based on that verified ranking. Timing depends on when official results are announced and confirmed.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution. Key events include final polling updates, candidate debate performances, endorsements, and any last-minute scandals or campaign developments. Unexpected surges in voter turnout or late-deciding demographics can also influence traders' views. As the primary approaches, any dramatic changes in the race will likely cause rapid price adjustments.
