TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 30, 9:03 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Yum Brands is estimated to release earnings on July 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Yum Brands’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.56 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yum Brands reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.56 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Yum Brands releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Yum Brands is estimated to release earnings on July 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Yum Brands’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.56 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yum Brands reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.56 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Yum Brands releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction markets and traditional analyst consensus often diverge because they operate on different incentives. Analysts publish point estimates and ratings based on research models, while traders in this market stake real capital on the outcome, creating a direct financial penalty for inaccuracy. Historical data shows prediction markets frequently outperform consensus forecasts on binary events like earnings beats, especially when analyst estimates cluster around consensus and miss tail risks that traders price in earlier.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into real-time probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see reflects the collective belief of all participants: a higher price means traders assign a greater likelihood to a YUM earnings beat, while a lower price signals skepticism. You can buy or sell shares at any time before resolution, and your profit or loss depends on whether the final outcome matches your position.
This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, once Yum Brands' quarterly earnings results are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by whether actual earnings per share or revenue exceed the consensus estimate at the time of release. Resolution is confirmed against credible public reporting from financial news sources and official company filings, ensuring all traders have access to the same verifiable data.
Key catalysts include same-store sales trends, same-store sales guidance from Yum's restaurant brands (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut), macroeconomic data affecting consumer spending, and any management commentary on pricing power or cost pressures. Competitor earnings reports and broader restaurant-sector performance can also shift trader expectations. Analyst estimate revisions in the weeks leading up to the announcement often trigger sharp repricing, as do unexpected supply-chain or operational disruptions affecting the QSR industry.