TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 28, 6:16 PM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Visa is estimated to release earnings on July 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Visa’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Visa reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Visa releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Visa is estimated to release earnings on July 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Visa’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Visa reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Visa releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst consensus because they incorporate real-time trader conviction and forward-looking expectations. While sell-side analysts publish earnings estimates based on models and company guidance, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders betting real capital on the outcome. Analysts may lag in updating forecasts, whereas prediction markets adjust instantly to new data, earnings whispers, or macroeconomic shifts. Comparing the two can reveal where the market sees upside or downside risk that consensus has not yet priced in.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader bets into implied probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares representing "yes" or "no" outcomes, and the price of each share reflects the crowd's real-time assessment of the likelihood that Visa will beat earnings. As more capital flows into one side, the price adjusts to balance supply and demand, ensuring the market remains responsive to new information and trader sentiment.
This market resolves around Jul 28, 2026, once Visa's quarterly earnings are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by whether the company's reported earnings per share or revenue exceed the consensus estimate that was in effect at the time of the announcement. Resolution occurs after credible public reporting confirms the final figures, allowing traders to settle their positions based on the actual result.
Key catalysts include Visa's pre-earnings guidance updates, macroeconomic data affecting payment volumes, changes in analyst consensus estimates, and broader fintech or payments sector news. Earnings whispers, insider commentary, or shifts in consumer spending patterns can also shift trader positioning. Additionally, movements in Visa's stock price, changes in interest rates, or major announcements from competitors may influence how traders assess the likelihood of an earnings beat. Real-time earnings preview reports and management commentary in the days leading up to the announcement typically drive the largest price swings.