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Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?
polymarket

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

Volume:
$7,351,714

June 30

 - Polymarket

June 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,063,513
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,159,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$128,508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether the Trump administration will announce a restart of Project Freedom, the U.S. military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, or launch a substantially equivalent program by the specified deadline. On Polymarket, the probability that Trump will restart Project Freedom by June 30 stands at 93.0%, while the probability of a restart by May 31 is 0.0%. Resolution will be based on official announcements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military, with credible reporting serving as a secondary source. Watch for any formal government announcement of Project Freedom's restart or an equivalent maritime escort program through June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market's resolution deadline.

Polymarket

Project Freedom was a U.S.-led military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, or the United States military announces that Project Freedom will be restarted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump, the United States government, and the United States military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations and differ from traditional polling averages, which measure public opinion through surveys rather than financial incentives. Markets price in trader conviction about whether Trump will restart Project Freedom, incorporating news flow, policy announcements, and insider information faster than polls typically update. While polls capture snapshot sentiment, prediction markets reward accuracy with financial gain, often producing forward-looking probabilities that diverge from concurrent survey data as new developments emerge.

The Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...? market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether Trump has officially restarted Project Freedom within the specified timeframe by that date. The outcome is determined by verifiable public announcements, executive actions, policy documentation, or official statements confirming the restart. Traders should monitor government communications, press releases, and credible news sources for concrete evidence of Project Freedom's restart status as the resolution date approaches.

Key catalysts include official Trump administration announcements regarding Project Freedom, executive orders or policy directives, media reports from credible sources confirming restart plans, congressional statements or hearings, budget allocations tied to the initiative, and campaign messaging. Personnel changes within relevant agencies, shifts in political priorities, or competing policy initiatives could also influence market odds. Traders should track White House communications, policy briefings, and political developments closely, as any concrete signal of Project Freedom's restart would likely trigger significant price movement before Jun 30, 2026.