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Will the US House Censure any member by October 31?
kalshi
polymarket

Will the US House Censure any member by October 31?

Volume:
$11,323

Before Nov 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Nov 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 7, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 6:18 PM EST

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Outcome
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Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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Result
kalshi

Before Nov 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,496
N/A
N/A
$4,283
1mo 4d
Yes
polymarket

Will the US House Censure any member by October 31?

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,827
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether the US House of Representatives will censure any sitting member by October 31, 2026. A censure requires an explicit resolution of censure passed by the House, not merely a reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms require a formal resolution of censure passed by the US House against a sitting member before October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with no qualifying alternative resolutions allowed.Primary resolution logic: Official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., congress.gov) or consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' only if the House passes a resolution that explicitly censures a sitting member
  • Resolutions of reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval — even if passed — do not qualify
  • The censure must occur between market creation and October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • After October 31: Any censure passed after October 31, 2026, even if against a sitting member, will not trigger a 'Yes' outcome
  • Non-sitting members: Censure of individuals who are not sitting House members at the time of the resolution does not qualify
Timing: The resolution must be passed by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a resolution of Censure against any individual who is a sitting member of the House at the time such resolution is passed, between market creation and October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying resolution must explicitly censure the member — resolutions of reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval that do not censure will not qualify. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., https://www.congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If the House of Representatives censures Chuck Edwards before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the House censure market aggregates predictions across platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of any member being censured by the US House before the deadline. It displays real-time odds, volume of $11,323, and 24-hour volume of $2,262 from multiple prediction markets, offering a consensus view of market expectations.