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Will the US announce a Venezuelan oil field deal?
kalshi

Will the US announce a Venezuelan oil field deal?

Volume:
$8,413

Before Oct 1, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 30, 2026

Closed: Aug 30, 2:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,870
N/A
N/A
$4,115
3mo 1w 3d
Yes
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,542
N/A
N/A
$1,426
3mo 1w 3d
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This event tracks whether the United States will formally commit to acquiring rights to Venezuelan oil fields through official agreements or announcements. It focuses on government-led deals that grant ownership or lease interests, excluding private transactions or temporary arrangements. The outcome depends on whether such a deal is publicly declared by authorized U.S. government officials within the specified timeframe.

Kalshi

The event resolves to Yes if the United States government officially announces or agrees to a new deal granting ownership or lease rights to Venezuelan oil fields after the market issuance and before January 1, 2027. The deal must involve the U.S. federal government acquiring a direct or indirect interest in Venezuelan oil fields, with no minimum ownership percentage or lease duration required. Valid announcements include formal treaties, binding agreements, parliamentary approvals, official statements by authorized ministers, press releases, and declarations during government proceedings. Multi-party agreements where Venezuela is a signatory and phased implementation announcements also qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements, opposition statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions do not count. Reannouncements or continuations of pre-issuance arrangements, as well as oil purchases, sanctions permissions, or private-company deals without U.S. government ownership or lease rights, are excluded from qualifying outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the US-Venezuela oil deal market dashboard tracks real-time odds reflecting the likelihood of an announced deal between the two nations. It displays current pricing, price history charts, and 24-hour volume of $1,539 to help users monitor trader sentiment. This focused view isolates market dynamics for this specific geopolitical and energy event, allowing participants to gauge how betting patterns evolve as new diplomatic or economic signals emerge.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch official statements, press releases, and reputable news sources for any US government announcement regarding a Venezuelan oil field deal. The market settles based on whether such an announcement occurs before the deadline, following Kalshi’s standard verification process.

Several signals could shift this market before Jan 8, 2027. Key catalysts include official statements from US or Venezuelan leaders, changes in sanctions regimes, energy policy announcements, or diplomatic meetings indicating progress toward an oil deal. Global oil price swings, regional geopolitical tensions, and trading volume spikes on Kalshi also often drive short-term price movements as traders reassess the probability of an agreement.