This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has the highest arena rank when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only ranks displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Mythos-Class model debut market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $9,879, and total volume to date is $11,039. This allows traders to see how sentiment is shifting regarding whether the next Mythos-Class model will debut as the top-ranked model. The dashboard provides a visual representation of market activity and helps participants assess the potential profitability of different positions within this market.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. In this market, the implied probability from Polymarket may differ from the expectations of industry analysts covering the AI model release landscape. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or the market’s ability to incorporate a wider range of factors than a single analyst might consider. Observing these differences can offer valuable insights into the overall sentiment surrounding the debut of the next Mythos-Class model.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that as more traders believe the next Mythos-Class model will debut as #1, the price of shares increases, and vice versa. The market efficiently aggregates information and adjusts prices based on supply and demand.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the next Mythos-Class model is ranked #1 upon its initial release, according to a widely recognized and independent ranking system. The ranking system used will be determined by Polymarket and publicly available before resolution. The focus is on the initial ranking, not subsequent updates or revisions to the model's performance.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Jun 30, 2027. Announcements regarding the development timeline of the next Mythos-Class model, leaks about its capabilities, or shifts in the competitive landscape could all influence trading activity. Positive news about the model’s performance in internal testing, or negative news about competing models, would likely increase the price of shares. Conversely, delays in the release or reports of significant technical challenges could drive the price down, reflecting changing expectations about its debut ranking.

Will the next Mythos-Class model debut as #1?

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