TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket specifies controlling interest (>50% equity or governance control) and explicitly permits partial sales meeting that threshold; Kalshi uses simpler "agreement to acquire" language without defining control thresholds or addressing partial transactions.Hero Tip:
The core event (announcement by Dec 31, 2026 / Jan 1, 2027) is nearly identical, but Polymarket's controlling interest requirement and partial-sale carve-out create ambiguity. If GameStop announces a minority stake or governance partnership, Polymarket may resolve "Yes" while Kalshi may not. Favor Polymarket's explicit definition for clarity; watch for official press releases that specify equity percentage and control rights.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Announcement of acquisition/merger by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET qualifies for "Yes". Controlling interest defined as >50% equity or equivalent governance control. Partial sales qualify if controlling interest transfers. Primary source: official eBay/GameStop statements; credible reporting consensus as fallback. Key quote: 'An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.'
- Kalshi: Announcement of agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027 resolves "Yes". Does not explicitly define controlling interest or address partial sales. Key quote: 'If GameStop announces an agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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