TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.2b

24H VOL:

$135,728,420

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,797,847,289

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,765,422,511

511,234

Markets across

38,416

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,849

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Will GameStop acquire eBay?
polymarket
kalshi

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Total volume:
$6,774,120
Volume 24h:
$9,532
30%
Liquidity:
$87,839
7%
Open interest:
$1,194,711
0.12%

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

 - Polymarket

Will GameStop acquire eBay? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

7%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 7¢ buys you 1,429 shares | Odds: 7% Total Payout: $1,429 | Net Profit: $1,329 Multiplier: 14.29x | ROI: 1,329% APY not meaningful 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$87,839
$3,192,574
0.02%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$3,581,546
0.25%
1%
$1,194,711
2mo 1w 2d
active
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks the probability of GameStop acquiring eBay, as determined by whether an official announcement is made regarding the acquisition, merger, or ongoing acquisition of eBay by GameStop. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring is 6.5%, with the second most probable outcome – an announcement of acquisition before January 1, 2027 – at 6.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official information from eBay and GameStop. Keep an eye on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as that is the deadline for an announcement to trigger a “Yes” resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket specifies controlling interest (>50% equity or governance control) and explicitly permits partial sales meeting that threshold; Kalshi uses simpler "agreement to acquire" language without defining control thresholds or addressing partial transactions.Hero tip: The core event (announcement by Dec 31, 2026 / Jan 1, 2027) is nearly identical, but Polymarket's controlling interest requirement and partial-sale carve-out create ambiguity. If GameStop announces a minority stake or governance partnership, Polymarket may resolve "Yes" while Kalshi may not. Favor Polymarket's explicit definition for clarity; watch for official press releases that specify equity percentage and control rights.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Announcement of acquisition/merger by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET qualifies for "Yes". Controlling interest defined as >50% equity or equivalent governance control. Partial sales qualify if controlling interest transfers. Primary source: official eBay/GameStop statements; credible reporting consensus as fallback. Key quote: 'An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.'
  • Kalshi: Announcement of agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027 resolves "Yes". Does not explicitly define controlling interest or address partial sales. Key quote: 'If GameStop announces an agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If GameStop announces an agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates trading data for the GameStop eBay acquisition market across multiple prediction platforms, specifically Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays a consensus view of the probability of a successful acquisition, derived from the combined volume of $6,774,120 and 24-hour volume of $9,504. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will GameStop acquire eBay? at 6.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will GameStop announce acquisition of eBay before Jan 1, 2027? at 5.0%. This allows traders to see overall market sentiment and compare pricing across different venues.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or company affiliations, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who have ‘skin in the game’. Currently, the implied probability of a GameStop acquisition of eBay, as reflected in this market, may differ from the consensus view of financial analysts covering these companies. This difference can be valuable for informed decision-making, as prediction markets have historically been shown to be surprisingly accurate at forecasting real-world events.

On Polymarket, this market is priced based on the specific trading activity and user base of that platform, while Kalshi has its own distinct set of traders and liquidity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. These differences in participation and information access can lead to varying probabilities for the same event. Additionally, each platform may have slightly different rules or fee structures that influence trading behavior. The spread between the two platforms is currently 1.5, indicating a degree of disagreement among traders on the likelihood of the acquisition.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether GameStop publicly announces the acquisition of eBay before the resolution date. Any official announcement from either company, confirmed by major financial news outlets, will determine the outcome of this market. The market will close and payouts will be distributed based on whether the acquisition was announced within the specified timeframe.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. A major announcement from either GameStop or eBay regarding strategic partnerships, financial performance, or acquisition targets would likely cause price movement. Unexpected regulatory hurdles or antitrust concerns could also shift the odds. Positive or negative news regarding GameStop's financial health and ability to fund an acquisition, or a change in eBay’s openness to being acquired, would be key catalysts. Any substantial shifts in market sentiment driven by these events will be reflected in the trading volume and probabilities within this market.