TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.9b

24H VOL:

$106,489,002

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,181,535,005

338,833

Markets across

33,624

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,320

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Total volume:
$5,858,277
Volume 24h:
$65,142
501%
Liquidity:
$69,960
1%
Open interest:
$1,086,162
6%

Before Jan 1, 2027

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027 - Kalshi

10%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$124k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will GameStop announce acquisition of eBay before Jan 1, 2027?

9%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
k

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 10¢ buys you 1,000 shares | Odds: 9% Total Payout: $1,000 | Net Profit: $900 Multiplier: 10.00x | ROI: 900% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks whether GameStop will announce an acquisition of eBay before January 1, 2027, with the current aggregated consensus at 9.0% for a "Yes" outcome and 7.5% for the second outcome across Polymarket and Kalshi. The resolution source is official announcements from GameStop or eBay, with the market set to resolve based on any official acquisition announcement by December 31, 2026. Watch for any official announcement before the end of the betting period on January 1, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket specifies controlling interest (>50% equity or governance control) and explicitly permits partial sales meeting that threshold; Kalshi uses simpler "agreement to acquire" language without defining control thresholds or addressing partial transactions.Hero tip: The core event (announcement by Dec 31, 2026 / Jan 1, 2027) is nearly identical, but Polymarket's controlling interest requirement and partial-sale carve-out create ambiguity. If GameStop announces a minority stake or governance partnership, Polymarket may resolve "Yes" while Kalshi may not. Favor Polymarket's explicit definition for clarity; watch for official press releases that specify equity percentage and control rights.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Announcement of acquisition/merger by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET qualifies for "Yes". Controlling interest defined as >50% equity or equivalent governance control. Partial sales qualify if controlling interest transfers. Primary source: official eBay/GameStop statements; credible reporting consensus as fallback. Key quote: 'An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.'
  • Kalshi: Announcement of agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027 resolves "Yes". Does not explicitly define controlling interest or address partial sales. Key quote: 'If GameStop announces an agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If GameStop announces an agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the GameStop–eBay acquisition question across Polymarket and Kalshi. It tracks the consensus probability that GameStop will acquire eBay by the resolution date, drawing on combined liquidity of $5,709,703 across both platforms. You can monitor current odds, 24-hour volume of $1,858, and historical price movements to understand how traders are pricing the likelihood of this deal. The multi-platform view reveals where the market stands and how conviction has shifted over time.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from thousands of traders and differ from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate live market sentiment and breaking news instantly. While equity analysts may issue quarterly reports on strategic M&A potential, prediction markets update continuously as new information emerges. For the GameStop–eBay question, the aggregated market view across Polymarket and Kalshi represents a crowdsourced probability that often diverges from sell-side consensus, offering an alternative gauge of deal likelihood based on decentralized trader conviction rather than institutional research.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and contract specifications. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket currently reflects 6.5% while Kalshi shows 9.0%, a spread of 2.5 percentage points. Differences arise from distinct trader demographics, fee structures, and how each platform words resolution criteria. Arbitrage opportunities may exist but are constrained by withdrawal friction and platform-specific rules, allowing prices to diverge temporarily before converging as informed traders exploit gaps.

Key catalysts include GameStop earnings calls or investor updates mentioning M&A strategy, eBay board statements on strategic alternatives, regulatory filings or antitrust reviews, activist investor campaigns, and major shifts in either company's stock price or business performance. Media reports of deal talks or negotiations would likely spike volume and shift odds sharply. Conversely, public denials, leadership changes, or strategic pivots away from acquisitions could lower deal probability. Macro factors like credit availability and market sentiment also influence trader conviction in large corporate transactions.