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Will Anthropic's valuation hit the target by July 31, 2026?
Time left: 15d:22h:59m
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15 by July 31?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Anthropic's private market valuation will reach $1.15 billion by the end of July 2026. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Predict, the consensus probability stands at 94.0% for this outcome. Resolution will be determined by Nasdaq Private Market valuation data as the official source. Watch for any significant funding announcements or market developments before the July 31, 2026 resolution deadline, as these could impact final valuation assessments.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Temporal divergence in resolution deadline (June 30 vs July 31, 2026) creates different observation windows and data availability periods. Both platforms use identical NPM methodology but different cutoff dates.Hero tip: Polymarket buyers have a one-month advantage in observation time. If valuation momentum is expected in late July, Polymarket YES positions are more likely to resolve affirmatively. Predict markets close earlier and carry higher NO risk if thresholds are hit post-June 30. Cross-platform arbitrage may exist if market prices do not reflect the temporal advantage.Critical divergence points:
- Predict: Resolution window: market creation through June 30, 2026. Grace period extends to July 4, 2026 if NPM data incomplete by 1:00 PM ET July 1. Uses NPM Price data as primary source, with IPO/direct listing and public market cap fallbacks. Key Quote: 'reaches or exceeds the listed amount...for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026'
- Polymarket: Resolution window: market creation through July 31, 2026. Grace period extends to August 4, 2026 if NPM data incomplete by 1:00 PM ET August 1. Uses identical NPM Price methodology with same IPO/direct listing and public market cap fallbacks. Key Quote: 'reaches or exceeds the listed amount...for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Predict may price this event differently due to variations in liquidity, participant demographics, and contract design. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with distinct risk tolerances and information sets; one may have deeper pools of capital or more active market makers in valuation-focused contracts. Settlement timing and exact threshold definitions can also create subtle pricing gaps. Monitoring both venues reveals arbitrage opportunities and helps traders identify which platform's odds better reflect true consensus on Anthropic's near-term valuation prospects.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting of Anthropic's valuation. The resolution hinges on whether the company's valuation has reached the specified threshold by that date, as verified through reliable sources such as funding announcements, acquisition terms, or third-party valuations. Traders holding shares aligned with the correct outcome receive their winnings once the event is finalized and the platform settles all positions accordingly.
Major catalysts include Anthropic's funding rounds, product releases, partnerships with major cloud or enterprise players, and regulatory developments affecting AI companies. Competitive moves by OpenAI, Google, or other AI labs can shift sentiment on Anthropic's valuation trajectory. Macroeconomic shifts in venture capital appetite, tech sector volatility, and broader AI safety or regulation news will also influence trader positioning. Any public statements from Anthropic's leadership about growth, profitability, or strategic direction could trigger sharp repricing as participants reassess the likelihood of hitting the valuation milestone by the deadline.
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