TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Largest Company end of December 2026?
polymarket
opinion

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Total volume:
$13,842,389
Volume 24h:
$115,655
4%
Liquidity:
$1,301,525
3%
Open interest:
$529,346N/A

NVIDIA

all

2 markets

Opinion

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

NVIDIA

73%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 79¢ buys you 127 shares | Odds: 73% Total Payout: $127 | Net Profit: $27 Multiplier: 1.27x | ROI: 27% | APY: 201% 76 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

NVIDIA

Trade
73%
Yes 79¢No 79¢
58¢
N/A
$120,565
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

NVIDIA

Trade
69%
Yes 70¢No 33¢
3¢
$62,848
$1,407,266
0.59%
5%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
68.5%
Yes 74.5¢No 56¢
Avg: 30.5¢Max: 58¢
opinion

Apple

Trade
50%
Yes 50¢No 99¢
49¢
N/A
$132,375
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Apple

Trade
28%
13%
Yes 29¢No 72.4¢
1.4¢
$139,491
$1,087,298
2%
10%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
28.3%
Yes 39.5¢No 85.7¢
Avg: 25.2¢Max: 49¢
opinion

Alphabet

Trade
17%
Yes 12.7¢No 95¢
7.7¢
N/A
$126,397
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Alphabet

Trade
2%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.5¢
0.3¢
$151,491
$805,371
0.83%
4%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.8%
Yes 7.2¢No 96.8¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 7.7¢
opinion

Amazon

Trade
1%
Yes 4.2¢No 99¢
3.2¢
N/A
$1,914,301
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Amazon

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$226,099
$1,003,257
0.01%
0.15%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.8%
Yes 2.2¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 3.2¢Max: 3.2¢
polymarket

Microsoft

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$98,056
$1,065,545
1%
6%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

Microsoft

Trade
0%
Yes 99.2¢No 99¢
98.2¢
N/A
$213,442
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 49.8¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 49.2¢Max: 98.2¢
polymarket

SpaceX

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$133,106
$945,288
5%
26%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

Saudi Aramco

Trade
95%
Yes 94.9¢No 98.7¢
93.6¢
N/A
$2,138,644
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Saudi Aramco

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$189,186
$1,073,971
2%
4%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 47.5¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 93.6¢Max: 93.6¢
opinion

Tesla

Trade
38%
Yes 36.9¢No 98.9¢
35.8¢
N/A
$847,710
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Tesla

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$301,247
$960,960
1%
1%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 18.5¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 35.8¢Max: 35.8¢
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks which company will have the largest market capitalization at the end of December 2026. Currently, the consensus probability that Saudi Aramco will be the largest company is 94.9%. This forecast is an aggregation of views from Polymarket and Opinion, and will be resolved based on a consensus of credible reporting – such as major financial news outlets and official exchange data. Keep an eye on market capitalization reports leading up to December 31, 2026, as that is when market close will be used to determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms define the resolution based on the same metric (market capitalization) at the same time (market close, December 31, 2026) and rely on credible reporting.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting (e.g., major financial news outlets, official exchange data)

Core resolution logic:

  • The company with the highest market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026, will be considered the largest.
  • Market capitalization will be determined using publicly available data from credible financial reporting sources.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the event of a tie in market capitalization, the company with the higher share price will be considered the largest. If share prices are also identical, the company with the larger number of shares outstanding will be considered the largest.
  • Market Closure: Market close will be defined as the last trade executed on the primary exchange for each company on December 31, 2026. Different exchanges may have slightly different closing times; the most widely used exchange will be prioritized.
  • Data Discrepancies: If credible sources report conflicting market capitalization figures, a consensus will be reached based on a majority of reputable sources. If a consensus cannot be reached, the source with the highest level of transparency and auditability will be prioritized.
Timing: Resolution will occur after market close on December 31, 2026, allowing time for data verification and consensus building.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Opinion

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the collective predictions on the largest company market, aggregating trading volume and implied probabilities from both venues. Currently, the total volume across both platforms is $13,842,389, with $115,155 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of who traders believe will be the world’s most valuable company by the end of 2026. The dashboard helps visualize how opinions are shifting and where the smart money is flowing in this highly competitive market. It’s a great way to understand the overall sentiment.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or long-term investment strategies, while this market reflects real-money bets and a more immediate assessment of probabilities. While both aim to predict future outcomes, the incentive structure differs significantly. Analysts are often incentivized to maintain a consistent narrative, whereas traders in this market are directly rewarded for accurate predictions. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market anticipates changes that analysts haven't yet fully incorporated into their models.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling contracts, while Opinion uses a different mechanism. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. This can lead to price discrepancies, even for the same underlying event. Differences in user base, trading fees, and platform-specific rules can all contribute to these variations. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? at 68.5%, while Opinion leans toward Saudi Aramco at 94.9%. These differing views reflect the unique dynamics of each platform and the information available to their respective traders.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The largest company will be determined by its market capitalization at the close of trading on December 31, 2026. This will be assessed using publicly available data from major stock exchanges and financial news sources. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to ensure accuracy and transparency, providing a definitive answer to this market’s question.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major technological breakthroughs by a company, unexpected shifts in global economic conditions, or significant mergers and acquisitions are all potential catalysts. Regulatory changes impacting key industries could also play a role. Earnings reports and investor sentiment will be closely watched, as will any news regarding the leadership or strategic direction of the leading contenders. Unexpected geopolitical events could also influence market valuations and shift probabilities in this market.