TOTAL VOLUME:

$114b

24H VOL:

$119,408,734

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,307,273,240

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,135,817,148

320,489

Markets across

31,209

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,917

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Largest Company end of December 2026?
polymarket
predict
opinion

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Total volume:
$17,802,598
Volume 24h:
$1,780,398
277%
Liquidity:
$2,466,427
100%
Open interest:
$411,965N/A

Saudi Aramco

all

2 markets

Opinion

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Saudi Aramco

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 90.7¢ buys you 110 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $110 | Net Profit: $10 Multiplier: 1.10x | ROI: 10% | APY: 29% 132 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Saudi Aramco

Trade
94%
Yes 90.7¢No 98.8¢
89.5¢
N/A
$2,138,641
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Saudi Aramco

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$178,069
$787,508
1%
3%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
47%
Yes 45.5¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 44.8¢Max: 89.5¢
polymarket

NVIDIA

Trade
73%
6%
Yes 74¢No 28¢
2¢
$78,633
$1,076,134
0.53%
6%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
opinion

NVIDIA

Trade
70%
Yes 69.9¢No 99.9¢
69.8¢
N/A
$120,237
0%
0.03%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
71.5%
Yes 72¢No 64¢
Avg: 35.9¢Max: 69.8¢
opinion

Tesla

Trade
38%
Yes 37.9¢No 98.9¢
36.8¢
N/A
$847,710
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Tesla

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$298,604
$694,069
0.5%
3%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
19%
Yes 19.1¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 18.5¢Max: 36.8¢
opinion

Alphabet

Trade
17%
Yes 38¢No 91¢
29¢
N/A
$126,397
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Alphabet

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
$153,054
$627,342
0.06%
4%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
13.5%
Yes 24¢No 91¢
Avg: 15¢Max: 29¢
opinion

Apple

Trade
16%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
0¢
N/A
$132,367
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Apple

Trade
14%
2%
Yes 14.4¢No 86.6¢
1¢
$163,432
$825,415
0.04%
3%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
15%
Yes 32.2¢No 68.3¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 1¢
opinion

Amazon

Trade
1%
Yes 4.3¢No 99¢
3.3¢
N/A
$1,914,301
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Amazon

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$204,724
$760,561
0.25%
4%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 2.3¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 3.3¢
polymarket

SpaceX

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.2¢
0.1¢
$169,718
$502,087
0.66%
5%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
polymarket

Microsoft

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$212,086
$800,205
0.03%
2%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
opinion

Microsoft

Trade
0%
Yes 99.3¢No 99¢
98.3¢
N/A
$213,442
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 1w 5d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 49.9¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 49.2¢Max: 98.3¢
predict

>¥42B

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$156,173
$2,258,436
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
predict

>¥120B

View
100%
1%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$397,039
$868,796
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
predict

>¥180B

View
100%
5%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
$58,734
$325,224
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
predict

>¥150B

View
100%
2%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$12,922
$310,679
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
predict

>¥250B

View
100%
36%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$70,819
$268,386
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
predict

>¥50B

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$24,364
$243,028
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
predict

>¥100B

View
100%
1%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$14,447
$192,577
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
predict

>¥60B

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$15,104
$154,936
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
predict

>¥90B

View
100%
1%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$20,946
$124,284
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
predict

>¥70B

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$4,740
$107,633
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w 6d
No
Total markets: 25 of 36

Intro

This market tracks which company will have the largest market capitalization as of December 31, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for Saudi Aramco leading is 94.1% across Polymarket, Predict, and Opinion, with resolution based on official company filings and primary exchange listing pages. Watch the market close on December 31, 2026, which marks the end of the evaluation period for determining the largest company.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use market capitalization determined from official filings and exchange data, with consistent handling of IPO timing and thresholds for Unitree Robotics.Primary resolution logic: Official company filings and primary exchange listing pages

Core resolution logic:

  • Market cap is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price
  • For December 31, 2026 markets: use data as of market close on that date
  • For Unitree Robotics: use first trading day's closing price and shares; if no IPO by Dec 31, 2026, 'No IPO' resolves as yes
  • If a value falls exactly between brackets for Unitree Robotics, resolve to the higher range

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • IPO Interruption: If Unitree's first trading day has an interrupted session, use the official closing price of the abbreviated session or the next trading day's close
  • Share Class Conversion: Include all outstanding share classes with conversion ratios where applicable; otherwise count at stated amounts
Timing: All markets resolve after December 31, 2026, using data from official sources as defined in each market's rulesOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve based on Unitree Robotics' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

Opinion

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the short_topic across multiple venues, showing how traders on different platforms price the chances of various corporations becoming the world’s largest by market cap at the end of December 2026. It aggregates volume of $17,802,590 and 24-hour volume of $1,924,992, letting users see consensus views and divergences between markets in real time.

On Polymarket, odds reflect trader sentiment that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which often incorporate fundamentals, earnings outlooks, and macro trends. This market lets investors bet on unexpected moves — like tech breakthroughs or policy shifts — that analysts might not fully price in today. The gap between Polymarket odds and analyst targets can signal where market sentiment diverges from institutional views.

On Polymarket and Opinion, pricing mechanisms, user bases, and liquidity depth all shape odds. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? at 73.0%, while Opinion leans toward Saudi Aramco at 94.1%. Differences in trading volume, regional participation, and risk preferences often create the 21.1 point spread seen between the two venues.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The closing market capitalization figures for all publicly traded companies as of December 31, 2026 will determine the winner, based on widely accepted financial data sources.

Earnings surprises, major M&A deals, regulatory shifts, or disruptive tech launches could all shift this market. Geopolitical tensions, oil price swings, or unexpected leadership changes at top firms may also reshape trader expectations. Any development that materially alters market cap projections — even weeks before Dec 31, 2026 — is likely to move odds on both Polymarket and Opinion.