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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
polymarket
kalshi

Will Tesla and SpaceX merge by 2028?

Total volume:
$2,873,651
Volume 24h:
$81,608
1,205%
Liquidity:
$36,755
48%
Open interest:
$1,055,472
3%

Before 2028

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028?

71%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 72¢ buys you 139 shares | Odds: 71% Total Payout: $139 | Net Profit: $39 Multiplier: 1.39x | ROI: 39% | APY: 69% 229 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before 2028

Trade
71%
Yes 72¢No 31¢
3¢
N/A
$30,850
6%
8%
$16,477
7mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2027

Trade
63%
3%
Yes 63¢No 38¢
1¢
$3,400
$39,940
3%
7%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
66.2%
Yes 67.5¢No 34.5¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Before May 1, 2027

Trade
52%
Yes 55¢No 48¢
3¢
N/A
$90,233
4%
4%
$29,808
7mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade
46%
Yes 52¢No 54¢
6¢
N/A
$70,983
4%
8%
$22,206
7mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
44%
1%
Yes 45¢No 57¢
2¢
$7,849
$29,349
0.03%
3%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
43%
Yes 42¢No 62¢
4¢
N/A
$33,719
5%
7%
$13,506
7mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

February 28, 2027

Trade
30%
6%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
$5,391
$14,281
24%
27%
N/A
4mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
39%
Yes 36¢No 66.5¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
35%
Yes 37¢No 66¢
3¢
N/A
$24,985
12%
15%
$12,919
7mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

January 31, 2027

Trade
27%
10%
Yes 27¢No 74¢
1¢
$8,082
$12,985
33%
62%
N/A
3mo 2w 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
32.1%
Yes 32¢No 70¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
31%
20%
Yes 32¢No 72¢
4¢
N/A
$74,678
19%
22%
$34,301
7mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
24%
10%
Yes 25¢No 77¢
2¢
$12,034
$234,228
11%
16%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
25.7%
Yes 28.5¢No 74.5¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
19%
Yes 20¢No 84¢
4¢
N/A
$56,071
20%
27%
$26,702
7mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$188,402
2%
5%
$118,147
7mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,908
N/A
N/A
$6,362
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before May 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,019
N/A
N/A
$1,578
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,390
N/A
N/A
$2,103
7mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$607,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$415,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$413,916
N/A
N/A
$331,181
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$389,847
N/A
N/A
$346,309
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$87,176
N/A
N/A
$66,076
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,101
N/A
N/A
$27,797
7mo 2w 5d
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of a definitive agreement being announced for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge with a transfer of controlling interest before January 1, 2028. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring is 67.0%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official information from Tesla or SpaceX as detailed in the resolution source. Keep an eye on Tesla’s Q4 2026 earnings call, as any merger announcements are likely to be made around major company milestones and reporting periods.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi requires a definitive, binding agreement, while Polymarket resolves on any official announcement of a merger/acquisition.Hero tip: Kalshi's requirement for a binding agreement introduces additional risk. Polymarket is more sensitive to initial announcements, potentially resolving 'Yes' earlier even if the deal later falls through. Consider the likelihood of deal completion when trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a merger/acquisition, even if non-binding, as long as a controlling interest is involved. "An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution..."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' only if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a *definitive, binding agreement* for a merger/acquisition resulting in a transfer of controlling interest. "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a *definitive, binding agreement*... then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

A merger or acquisition between Tesla and SpaceX resolves to Yes upon official announcement of a definitive, binding agreement combining the entities under common corporate ownership, regardless of which entity is the acquirer. Valid announcements must come through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements qualify only if they constitute unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement rather than expressions of intent, hypotheticals, negotiation updates, or speculative comments. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Resolution windows extend from May 1, 2026 through May 1, 2027.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities surrounding the Tesla and SpaceX merger, aggregating data from both platforms to provide a consensus view. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $2,873,651, with $66,663 traded in the last 24 hours. The current market consensus suggests a probability of approximately 8.5 between the highest and lowest probabilities offered on each platform. This allows traders to see how the collective wisdom of the crowd assesses the likelihood of this significant event occurring.

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on company reports and industry trends, this market reflects the aggregated insights of a diverse group of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the future. This can lead to a more dynamic and responsive assessment of the likelihood of the Tesla and SpaceX merger. It's important to note that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and comparing them can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the potential outcomes.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors, including differing liquidity, user bases, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of traders with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to potentially different interpretations of the available data regarding the Tesla and SpaceX merger. Additionally, the volume of trading on each platform—currently $2,873,651 overall—can influence price discovery, and temporary imbalances can occur before prices converge. These differences are normal and reflect the decentralized nature of prediction markets.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether an official announcement is made regarding a merger or acquisition between Tesla and SpaceX. This includes any definitive, binding agreement for either company to acquire the other, or for the two entities to merge or combine under common ownership. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information and verified against credible public sources.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from Elon Musk or key executives at Tesla or SpaceX regarding potential consolidation would be a major catalyst. Unexpected financial performance from either company, significant regulatory changes affecting their operations, or major technological breakthroughs could also shift probabilities. Furthermore, broader economic conditions and market sentiment towards electric vehicles and space exploration could influence trader behavior and, consequently, the price of this market concerning the Tesla and SpaceX merger.